000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1528 UTC Tue Dec 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico has started to weaken, which has loosened the pressure gradient. Though this would tend to diminish the winds, the added component of nocturnal drainage flow has helped maintain winds of minimal gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the morning hours. Winds will diminish below gale force on 03/1800 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 122W between 03N and 16N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 118W and 125W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N86W to 1011 mb low pressure near 07N96W to 1011 mb low pres near 07N106W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N124W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 77W and 80W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 91W and 101W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 12N between 118W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information about the ongoing gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, another gale force Tehuantepec gap wind event is possible Fri night through Sun. Gentle to moderate northerly flow prevails over the Baja California offshore waters, with light and variable winds off the coast of southern Mexico. NW swell is currently spreading across the Baja offshore waters, with seas in the 8-10 ft range. The NW swell will continue across the Baja California waters through tonight before seas subside below 8 ft on Wed. A weak high pressure ridge will move eastward across the northern waters today, briefly resulting in fresh northerly winds near Punta Eugenia. A weak cold front will pass over the northern waters Wed and Wed night. Fresh northerly flow will resume over the central and southern Gulf of California Thu night through Fri. The next set of large NW swell will move into the waters off Baja California late Fri night through Sat ahead of an approaching cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse across and downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama through mid week, then diminish Thu into Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador during the next several days, along with weak S to SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large NW swell dominates the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters north of 10N and west of 115W. Earlier altimeter data showed seas reaching near 13 ft over the waters north of 20N between 120W and 128W. This swell will slowly subside, with seas associated to this swell falling below 8 ft Thu. A cold front is analyzed over the NW corner from 30N127W to 25N133W. A prefrontal trough is from 29N126W to 23N129W. Another surface trough extends from 23N125W to 17N128W. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N to 30N between 121W and 127W. The cold front over the NW portion will move eastward across the northern waters through tonight. Another large set of NW swell will move into the NW waters late Thu and propagate SE through Sat, building seas to 12-18 ft over the NW portion on Fri. $$ Formosa