000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030917 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0830 UTC Tue Dec 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico has started to weaken, which has loosened the pressure gradient. Though this would tend to diminish the winds, the added component of nocturnal drainage flow has helped maintain winds of minimal gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight hours. Winds will diminish below gale force later this morning, when the added component of nocturnal drainage flow decreases. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 121W between 03N and 16N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 117W and 123W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N86W to 1012 mb low pressure near 07N96W to 1011 mb low pres near 07N106W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N124W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 10N between 92W and 98W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 07N to 09N between 112W and 117W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 12N between 117W and 123W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 11N between 123W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information about the ongoing gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, another gale force Tehuantepec gap wind event is possible Fri night through Sat. Gentle to moderate northerly flow prevails over the Baja California offshore waters, with light and variable winds off the coast of southern Mexico. NW swell is currently spreading across the Baja offshore waters, with seas in the 8-10 ft range. The NW swell will continue across the Baja California waters through tonight before seas subside below 8 ft on Wed. A weak high pressure ridge will move eastward across the northern waters today, briefly resulting in fresh northerly winds near Punta Eugenia. A weak cold front will pass over the northern waters Wed and Wed night. Fresh northerly flow will resume over the central and southern Gulf of California Thu night through Fri. The next set of large NW swell will move into the waters off Baja California late Fri night through Sat ahead of an approaching cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse across and downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama through mid week, then diminish Thu into Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador during the next several days, along with weak S to SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large NW swell dominates the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters north of 10N and west of 115W. Earlier altimeter data showed seas reaching near 13 ft over the waters north of 20N between 120W and 128W. This swell will slowly subside, with seas associated to this swell falling below 8 ft Thu. A surface trough is analyzed from near 24N125W to 14N129W. The latest ASCAT pass indicated fresh to locally strong E to SE winds east of the trough axis. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the trough north of 18N. This feature will slowly lift northward through tonight before it weakens by early Wed. A cold front over the far NW portion will move eastward across the northern waters through Wed night. Another large set of NW swell will move into the NW waters late Thu and propagate SE through Sat, building seas to 12-18 ft over the NW portion on Fri. $$ AL