000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020843 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0840 UTC Mon Dec 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Mexico and the monsoon trough over the eastern North Pacific is supporting minimal gale force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight through early Tue. Seas will build to 13 ft near and downstream of the Gulf by this morning, and peak around 14 ft late tonight. High pressure will weaken tonight into Tue, allowing the gradient to relax and wind speeds to diminish. Winds will diminish below gale force Tue morning. Winds will further diminish, to 20 kt or less, by Tue night. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W between 02N and 15N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 110W and 117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 07N91W to 07N101W to 09N107W to 10N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 110W and 117W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 07N to 10N between 134W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information about the ongoing gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds prevail over the central and southern Gulf of California southward to near Las Tres Marias. Weak high pressure centered near Guadalupe Island is supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds over the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Elsewhere, light and variable winds prevail off the coast of southern Mexico. A set of large NW swell will move into the Baja California Norte waters this morning, with seas peaking near 11 ft today. This swell will continue to propagate SE into the Baja California Sur waters through Tue night before subsiding early on Wed. A weak high pressure ridge will cross the northern waters Tue and Tue night, briefly tightening the offshore gradient and producing fresh northerly winds near and south of Punta Eugenia. A weakening cold front or trough will pass over the northern waters Wed and Wed night. The next set of large NW swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte late Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across and downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama through mid week, then diminish by Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador during the next several days, along with weak S to SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A slow-moving, weakening cold front extends across the NW waters from 30N125W to 20N140W. The front has ushered in a set of large NW swell, which continue to spread SE across the NW portion. Seas are currently peaking near 17 ft over the NW waters. The front will dissipate today, while the associated swell will continue propagating SE while slowly subsiding. and cover most of the waters west of 115W by late Tue. A secondary cold front or trough developing over the far NW waters will move eastward across the northern waters, then weaken as it crosses the Baja California offshore zones Wed into Wed night. A surface trough or weak low will develop west of the Baja offshore waters tonight into Tue, briefly produce fresh winds between 120W and 125W into Tue night, then weaken on Wed. Another set of large NW swell will move into the NW waters Thu. $$ AL