000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010850 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0850 UTC Sun Dec 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Surface high pressure will build over the western Gulf of Mexico tonight in the wake of a cold front. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the monsoon trough over the eastern North Pacific will support minimal gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Sun night through Mon night. Associated seas will build to 11 ft near and downstream of the Gulf on Mon morning, then peak around 13 ft on Mon night. The area of high pressure will weaken Tue, which will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds below gale force. Winds will further diminish to 20 kt or less late Tue night. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W N of 03N, moving westward around 15-20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave axis is near 111W from 03N to 14N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 110W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N86W to 07N94W to 10N122W to 09N126W. The ITCZ continues from 09N126W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 110W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 13N between 123W and 131W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 05N to 08N between 131W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information about the upcoming gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail across much of the region, except for fresh winds off the coast of Cabo Corrientes. A set of large NW swell will move into the Baja California Norte waters early Mon, producing 8-11 ft seas through Mon night. This swell will continue to propagate SE through the Baja California Sur waters through Tue night before subsiding on Wed. A low pressure trough will cross the Baja offshore waters Wed into Thu, which could result in strengthening southerly flow over the northern Gulf of California by mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across and downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama through Tue, then diminish by mid week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador during the next several days, along with weak S to SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends across the NW waters from 30N128W to to 22N140W. Fresh to strong SW winds prevail ahead of the front over the far northern waters, while fresh to strong NW flow continues behind the front. The front has ushered in a set of large NW swell into the NW waters with wave heights near 20 ft over the far NW waters. This swell will peak near 22 ft today. The swell will spread SE while slowly subsiding. By late Tue, seas of 8 ft or greater will cover much of the forecast waters N of 05N and W of 110W. Seas associated to this swell will subside below 8 ft by Thu. Another set of large NW swell will move into the NW waters Thu. $$ AL