000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010311 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0310 UTC Sun Dec 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Surface high pressure will build over the western Gulf of Mexico on Sun night in the wake of a cold front. The enhanced pressure gradient across the Chivela Pass will support strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun evening through Tue. Winds are expected to strengthen to gale force late Sun night into early Mon, then pulse to gale force again on Mon night. Associated seas will build to 11 ft near and downstream of the Gulf on Mon morning, then peak around 12 ft with the second round of gales on Mon night. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 93W south of 13N, moving westward around 15-20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave axis is near 110W south of 14N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 109W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N82W to 09N94W to 08N110W. The ITCZ continues from 08N110W to 1006 mb low pressure near 07N113W to 10N122W to 07N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 122W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 127W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. High pressure is centered west of Baja California Norte near 30N117W this evening, with a ridge extending across the Baja California offshore waters. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail across much of the region, except for fresh winds off the coast of Cabo Corrientes. Seas will subside below 8 ft tonight as NW swell decays over the region. High pressure will build over the Great Basin on Sun, resulting in fresh northerly winds over the central and southern Gulf of California that will persist through Mon. Another set of NW swell will move into the Baja California Norte waters early Mon, producing 8-11 ft seas through Mon night. This swell will continue to propagate SE through the Baja California Sur waters through Tue night before subsiding on Wed. A low pressure trough will cross the Baja offshore waters Wed into Thu, which could result in strengthening southerly flow over the northern Gulf of California by mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across and downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama through Tue, then diminish by mid week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador during the next several days, along with weak S to SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends across the NW portion from 30N131W to 27N133W to 24N140W. Fresh to strong SW winds prevail ahead of the front over the far northern waters, while fresh to strong NW flow continues behind the front. Altimeter data from 1945 UTC indicated large NW swell was already reaching the far NW waters where wave heights were running 12-18 ft. Elsewhere, a large area of moderate to fresh NE winds with 8-9 ft seas in northerly swell extends SW from near the Revillagigedo Islands to 07N134W. The cold front will continue moving eastward across the northern waters through Sun before weakening Sun night. Seas will peak in excess of 20 ft over the far NW portion on Sun in very large NW swell. This swell will propagate SE through early next week, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the region north of 10N and west of 115W by Mon evening. Looking ahead, another cold front will move across the northern waters Mon night through Tue night, then degenerate to a surface trough on Wed. $$ Reinhart