000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302127 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2127 UTC Sat Nov 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Surface high pressure will build over the western Gulf of Mexico on Sun night in the wake of a cold front. The enhanced pressure gradient expected to develop across the Chivela Pass will support strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night through Tue. Winds are expected to strengthen to gale force late Sun night into early Mon, then pulse to gale force again on Mon night. Associated seas will build to 11 ft near and downstream of the Gulf on Mon morning, then peak around 12 ft with the second round of gales on Mon night. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 90W south of 16N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. No convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave axis is near 106W south of 15N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 105W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N90W to 08N117W. The ITCZ continues from 08N117W to 10N122W to 07N134W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 09N to 12N between 112W and 115W, and within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 121W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. High pressure is centered near Guadalupe Island with a ridge extending across the Baja California offshore waters. Earlier scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate N to NE winds across much of the region, except for locally fresh winds off the coast of Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 8-9 ft in NW swell west of Baja California will continue subsiding through tonight. High pressure will build over the Great Basin on Sun, resulting in fresh northerly winds over the central/southern Gulf of California and the entrance to the Gulf. Another set of NW swell will move into the Baja California Norte waters early Mon, producing 8-11 ft seas through Mon night. This swell will continue to propagate SE through the Baja California Sur waters before subsiding on Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across and downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador during the next several days, along with weak S to SW background swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends across the far NW waters from 30N131W to 26N136W to 25N140W. Recent scatterometer data shows fresh to strong SW flow ahead of the front, with fresh to strong NW winds occurring behind the front. This front will continue moving eastward across the northern waters through Sun before weakening Sun night. Seas will peak in excess of 20 ft over the far NW portion on Sun in large NW swell. This swell will propagate SE through early next week, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the region north of 10N and west of 115W by Mon evening. $$ Reinhart