000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300343 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Nov 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. .TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 05N to 10N. A tropical wave is along 103W/104W, from 14N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 08N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 450 nm of the low pressure center in the NW quadrant, and within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through Panama near 08N78W, to 08N82W, to 09N86W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 08N along the 103W/104W tropical wave, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 11N116W. The ITCZ continues from the 1014 mb low pressure center, to 08N123W, beyond 10N140W. A surface trough extends from the 1014 mb low pressure center to 17N112W and to 23N108W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong within 120 nm on either side of the monsoon trough from the 103W/104W eastward. Isolated moderate is within 120 nm of the 1014 mb low pressure center in the N quadrant, and within 75 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 121W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through mainland Mexico near 27N110W, across the Baja California Peninsula near 26N112W, to 20N121W, to 18N130W, and 20N137W. The cold front will shift southward with time. The front will reach the southern part of the Gulf of California and Baja California Sur on Saturday, where it will stall and dissipate. The earlier strong to near gale-force winds that were in the northern Gulf of California during the day today, have diminished already. NW swell will continue to impact the waters W of Baja California, with seas 8 feet or greater through Saturday. Another set of NW swell will move into the waters off Baja California Norte early on Monday. This swell will spread southward, with seas 8 feet or greater covering the waters west of the Baja California peninsula by Tuesday. The Gulf of Tehuantepec: fresh northerly gap winds will pulse to 20 to 25 knots each night through early Saturday, and then again on Sunday night. Gale-force winds will be possible on Monday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across and downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo through Tuesday. Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador, during the next several days, along with moderate long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The current 27N110W-to-20N137W cold front has ushered in a set of large long period NW swell, with seas ranging from 12 feet to 14 feet N of 27N between 122W and 135W. A second cold front will move into the NW waters tonight. The second cold front will bring with it reinforcing large long period NW swell. The swell is expected to peak near 23 feet in the far NW waters by Sunday afternoon. It is likely that the sea heights of 8 feet or greater may cover much of the forecast waters N of 10N and W of 115W through the weekend and into early next week. $$ mt