000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291439
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1430 UTC Fri Nov 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

.TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave axis is near 85W north of 02N moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
noted from 06N to 08N between 82W and 86W.

The axis of a tropical wave axis is near 98W north of 05N moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
noted from 06N to 11N between 96W and 101W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to low pressure near 
08N98W to 10N113W. The ITCZ continues from 10N113W to 08N125W to
beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted N of 05N E of 80W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted from 06N to 08N between 82W and 86W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N
to 10N between 89W and 96W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 96W and 105W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front extending across the northern Baja peninsula will 
shift southward and reach the southern part of the Gulf of 
California and Baja California Sur on Sat where it will stall 
and dissipate. Strong to near gale winds over the northern
Gulf of California will diminish today. NW swell will continue 
to impact the waters W of Baja California, with seas 8 ft or 
greater through Sat. Another set of NW swell will move into the 
waters off Baja California Norte early Mon. This swell sill 
spread southward, with seas 8 ft or greater covering the waters 
west of the Baja California peninsula by Tue. In the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, fresh northerly gap winds will pulse to around 20-25
kt each night through early Sat, then again Sun night, with gale
force winds possible Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across and 
downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo through Tuesday. Gentle to 
moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the offshore 
waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the next 
several days, along with moderate long period SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends across the NE part of the forecast area 
from Baja California Norte to 18N128W to near 21N138W. The front
has ushered in a set of large long period NW swell, with seas to
14 ft N of 27N between 115W and 130W. Another cold front will 
move into the NW waters tonight, with reinforcing large long 
period NW swell expected to peak near 20-21 ft over the far NW 
waters by early Sun. Seas of 8 ft or greater are likely over much
of the forecast waters N of 10N and W of 115W through the 
weekend and into early next week. 

$$
AL