000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281450
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1450 UTC Thu Nov 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1450 UTC.

.TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave axis is near 92W north of 03N moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 92W and 98W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N103W to 10N110W to 
09N130W. The ITCZ continues from 09N130W to beyond 11N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N E
of 82W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
from 08N to 10N between 92W and 98W. Scattered moderate
convection was noted from 07N to 10N between 111W and 117W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northern Gulf of California, 
Baja California Norte, and the offshore waters of Baja California
Norte. The front will shift southward and reach the southern 
part of the Gulf of California and Baja California Sur Sat, where
it will stall and dissipate. The front has ushered in a set of 
large NW swell, with seas of 10 to 14 ft over the waters off Baja
California Norte. Seas 8 ft or greater will prevail west of the
Baja California peninsula through Sat before diminishing. 
Another set of NW swell will move into the waters off Baja 
California Norte early Mon. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate 
to fresh northerly gap winds will pulse to around 20-25 kt each 
night through early Sat, then again Sun night, with gale force 
winds possible Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across and 
downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo at night through Monday. 
Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the 
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the 
next several days, along with moderate long period SW swell, 
supporting 4 to 7 ft seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends across the NE part of the forecast area 
from Baja California Norte to 24N127W to 26N136W. The front has
ushered in a set of large long period NW swell. The latest
altimeter pass indicates seas near 16 ft near 29N123W. Another 
cold front will move into the NW waters Fri and Sat, with 
reinforcing large long period NW swell expected to peak near 
19-20 ft over the far NW waters by early Sun. Seas of 8 ft or 
greater are likely over much of the forecast waters N of 10N and 
W of 115W through the weekend and into early next week. 

$$
AL