000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272044 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2021 UTC Wed Nov 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A non-tropical 1005 mb low pressure centered near 23N117W is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms northeastward from it across the Baja California peninsula, Gulf of California, and NW Mexico. This low will move northeast tonight and into NW Mexico Thu, possibly inducing flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall over the region. Recent scatterometer data indicates gale force southerly winds are developing in advance of this low over the southern Gulf of California this afternoon and model guidance suggests gales will prevail into tonight. Seas will build to around 10-12 ft across the offshore waters and southern Gulf of California. .TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is crossing Central America this afternoon and will enter the far eastern tropical Pacific near 86W from 05N to 15N tonight. Ahead of it, numerous moderate and scattered strong convection was noted from 04N to 10N between 78W and 84W. This wave is expected to track slowly westward over the next few days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N99W. The ITCZ extends from 08N99W to 15N110W and from 11N123W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 12N between 132W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for information on expected gale force winds over the southern Gulf of California. Large NW swell, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California. A cold front will cross the Baja California waters Thu and Fri, accompanied by another set of large long period NW swell. Seas associated to this swell will peak near 14 ft over the offshore waters off Baja California Norte thu night. The swell will gradually subside through the end of the week and weekend, with seas falling below 8 ft by late Saturday. Looking ahead, another set of NW swell will move into the waters off Baja California Norte early Mon. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate to fresh northerly gap winds are expected to pulse to around 20-25 kt each night through early Sat, then again Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across and downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo at night through Sunday. Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the next several days, along with moderate long period SW swell, supporting 4 to 7 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from the 1005 mb low pressure area near 23N117W to near 12N123W. Large NW swell continues across much of the forecast waters N of 10N and W of 115W, with latest altimeter data indicating seas in the 8-12 ft range. A cold front just has moved into the far northern waters this afternoon, and will continue moving south to along 26N Thu. This front will usher in a set of large, long period, NW swell. Seas associated to this swell a expected to peak near 16 ft over the waters N of 27N between 120W and 132W by Thu morning. Another cold front will move into the NW waters late Fri into early Sat. This front will also usher in a new set of large, long period, NW swell into the forecast waters. Seas associated to this swell are expected to peak near 20 ft over the far NW waters by early Sun. This series of swell events will maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the forecast waters N of 10N and W of 115W for most of the week through the weekend. $$ KONARIK