000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270922
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Nov 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Poorly organized 1005 mb low pressure centered near 22N118W is 
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms extending NE 
into the Gulf of California. This low will move north and east 
today, producing widespread heavy rain. Gale force southerly 
winds are expected to develop this afternoon and evening over 
the southern Gulf of California. Seas will build to around 10-12 
ft across the offshore waters and southern Gulf of California. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 05N82W to 10N100W. The 
ITCZ extends from 10N100W to 15N112W, then from 12N123W to 
beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N 
to 08N east of 81W, and within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 
123W and 133W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See Special Features section above for information on low 
pressure to the southwest of Baja California Sur.

Large NW swell will move further across the northern waters this 
morning. A cold front will cross the Baja California waters Thu 
and Fri, accompanied by reinforcing large long period NW swell. 
In the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate to fresh 
northerly gap winds are expected to pulse to around 20-25 kt 
each night through early Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across and 
downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo at night through Sunday. 
Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the 
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the 
next several days, along with moderate long period SW swell, 
supporting 4 to 7 ft seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from a 1005 mb low pressure area near 
22N118W to near 12N123W. To the north of this trough, fresh to 
strong NE trades exist across a wide area. Altimeter data 
indicates 9-14 ft seas across this area. 

Looking ahead, a cold front will push into into the northern 
waters tonight and Thu, followed reinforcing large long period 
NW swell. Combined seas may build to 16 ft by Thu west of 
Guadalupe Island. Seas greater than 8 ft will cover most of the 
region north of 20N by late Thu, and persist into Fri.  

$$
Mundell