116 
AXPZ20 KNHC 270208
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 UTC Wed Nov 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Disorganized low pressure of 1005 mb centered near 20N118W is
producing a wide area of numerous moderate to strong showers and
thunderstorms extending NE over the Gulf of California. As this
low moves north and east through Thursday, heavy rain may lead to
flash flooding and mudslides over portions of Baja California and
northwest Mexico.  Gale force southerly winds will also develop 
Wed afternoon and night over the southern Gulf of California. 
Seas during this time will build to around 10-12 ft, across the 
offshore waters and in the southern Gulf of California. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 06N95W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N95W to 09N115W, then from 10N130W to beyond 
09N140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See Special Features section above for information on low 
pressure to the southwest of Baja California Sur.

Large NW swell will move across the northern waters tonight into
Wed morning. A cold front will cross the Baja California waters 
Thu and Fri, accompanied by reinforcing large long period NW 
swell. In the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate to 
fresh northerly gap winds are expected through Wed, then pulsing 
to around 20-25 kt Wed night through Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across and 
downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo at night through Saturday. 
Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the 
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the 
next several days, along with moderate long period SW swell, 
supporting 4 to 7 ft seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough of low pressure extends from 1005 mb low
pressure near 19N118W to near 11N128W. To the north of this
trough, fresh to strong NE trades exist across a wide area.
Altimeter data indicates 9-14 ft seas across this area. 

Looking ahead, a cold front will push into into the northern 
waters Wed night and Thu, followed reinforcing large long period 
NW swell. Combined seas may build to 16 ft by Thu west of 
Guadalupe Island. Seas greater than 8 ft will cover most of the 
region north of 20N by late Thu and persist into Fri.  

$$
KONARIK