000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262119
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2105 UTC Tue Nov 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Broad low pressure several hundred miles SW of Baja California
Sur is producing showers and thunderstorms from the Baja
California peninsula SW into the eastern Pacific for about 500
miles. This complex low pressure are has two centers, one 1006 mb
near 20N114W and a second 1005 mb near 19N118W. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is located from 13N to 21N between
109W and 119W. This system and associated convection is expected
to move east over the next few days, bringing heavy rainfall and
the potential for flash flooding and mudslides to Baja California
and portions of NW Mexico. Gale force southerly winds will also 
develop Wed afternoon and night over the southern Gulf of
California. Seas during this time will build to around 10-12 ft,
across the offshore waters and in the southern Gulf of 
California. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 06N93W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N93W to 09N115W, then from 10N130W to beyond
09N140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See Special Features section above for information on low 
pressure to the southwest of Baja California Sur.

Large NW swell will move across the northern waters tonight into
Wed morning. A cold front will cross the Baja California waters 
Thu and Fri, accompanied by reinforcing large long period NW 
swell. In the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate to 
fresh northerly gap winds are expected through Wed, then pulsing 
to around 20-25 kt Wed night through Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across and 
downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo at night through Saturday. 
Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the 
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the 
next several days, along with moderate long period SW swell, 
supporting 4 to 7 ft seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough of low pressure extends from 1005 mb low
pressure near 19N118W to near 11N128W. To the north of this
trough, fresh to strong NE trades exist across a wide area.
Altimeter data indicates 9-14 ft seas across this area. 

Looking ahead, a cold front will push into into the northern 
waters Wed night and Thu, followed reinforcing large long period 
NW swell. Combined seas may build to 16 ft by Thu west of 
Guadalupe Island. Seas greater than 8 ft will cover most of the 
region north of 20N by late Thu and persist into Fri.  

$$
KONARIK