638 AXPZ20 KNHC 260930 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Nov 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A large area of unsettled weather several hundred miles SW of Baja California Sur is supported by a broad and energetic upper level low centered near 23N124W. A complex 1006 mb surface low that developed today near 19N119W has scattered moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms occurring within 300 nm S-SE of the low. The upper trough is forecast to shift southward today, then NE towards Baja California Wed and Thu. This will continue to spread multilayered cloudiness and increasing showers and thunderstorms from the offshore waters of Baja California Sur into the NW Mexico coast through Wed night. The low pressure system is also expected to induce gale force southerly winds in the southern Gulf of California Wed evening. Seas during this time will build to around 10-12 ft, across the offshore waters and in the southern Gulf of California. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N93W. The ITCZ continues from 06N93W to 11N110W, then resumes from 12N126W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 123W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1006 mb surface low near 19N119W will draw deep layer tropical moisture into Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California through mid week, supporting widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms spreading NE across the area. Showers are already streaming northeastward across south and central portions of Baja California and the Gulf of California south of the Tiburon Basin. The low will pass N of the Revillagigedo Islands and move across Baja California Sur into Sinaloa Wed through Wed night, bringing gale force southerly winds to the southern Gulf of California. Accompanying heavy rainfall may also produce flash flooding and landslides. See special features section above. Elsewhere, large NW swell will move across the northern waters today and tonight. A cold front will cross the Baja California waters Thu and Fri, accompanied by reinforcing large long period NW swell. Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate to fresh northerly gap winds are expected through Wed, then pulsing to around 20-25 kt Wed night through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across and downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo at night through Saturday. Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the next several days, along with moderate long period SW swell, supporting 4 to 7 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface trough extends across the waters along about 20N between 120W and 128W, supported by a vigorous upper level low sinking southward. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 17N to 22N between 109W and 117W. Elsewhere, a large area of fresh to strong NE trades prevails west of 120W between the ITCZ and strong high pressure centered north of the region. Altimeter data indicates 9-14 ft seas across this area. The broad upper level low will help to deepen the surface low near 19N119W the next 2 days, while low level troughing persists SW of this low. Expect strong to near gale force winds and building seas as this low shifts NE into the offshore waters of Baja California through early Wed. The strong pressure gradient west of the low will maintain strong trades through Wed morning, with seas slowly subsiding to 9-12 ft by Wed. Looking ahead, a cold front will push into into the northern waters Wed night and Thu, followed reinforcing large long period NW swell. Combined seas may build to 16 ft by Thu west of Guadalupe Island. Seas greater than 8 ft will cover most of the region north of 20N by late Thu and persist into Fri. $$ Mundell