281 AXPZ20 KNHC 251438 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1341 UTC Mon Nov 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W from 03N to 16N, moving west around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 113W and 119W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 06N93W to 06N96W. The ITCZ extends from 06N96W to 10N112W, then continues from 10N120W to 10N132W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 120W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad upper level low centered roughly near 26N123W will gradually shift SE and induce surface low pressure development near 20N120W today. This system will draw deep layer tropical moisture over Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California through mid week, supporting widespread showers and thunderstorms spreading NE across the region. The resulting surface low will likely track NE north of the Revillagigedo Islands and move across Baja California Sur into Sinaloa Wed and Wed night, bringing gale force winds to the waters off Baja California Sur, and the southern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, a large set of NW swell will move across the northern waters Tue and Tue night. A cold front will cross the Baja California waters Thu into Fri, accompanied by another round of large, long period NW swell. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strong northerly gap winds will diminish this morning as the local pressure gradient weakens. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the week, with seas generally remaining less than 8 ft. Gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days, along with moderate long period SW swell supporting 4-7 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface trough extends across the waters north of 20N between 123W and 127W, supported by an upper level low centered over the region. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 14N to 21N between 112W and 123W. Elsewhere, a large area of fresh to strong NE trades prevails west of 125W between the ITCZ and high pressure centered north of the region. Altimeter data sampled near the strongest winds revealed 9-12 ft seas across these waters. The broad upper level low is expected to induce surface low pressure development near 20N120W today. Expect strong to near gale force winds and building seas with this low, while an elongated surface trough will extend well SW of the low center. The strong pressure gradient west of the low will maintain strong trades with seas building to 10-14 ft west of 125W by tonight. The low will drift E-SE through Tue, then move E-NE toward Baja California Sur through mid week. Looking ahead, a cold front will drop southward into the northern waters Wed night and Thu, followed by another round of large, long period NW swell. Combined seas may build to 16 ft by Thu west of Guadalupe Island. Seas greater than 8 ft will cover most of the region north of 20N by late Thu and persist through Fri. $$ AL