242 AXPZ20 KNHC 250240 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Nov 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 116W south of 15N, moving west near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N TO 14.5N between 112W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W TO 07N82W TO 10N93W. The ITCZ continues from 10N93W TO 12N117W TO 10.5N122W TO 13N126W, then resumes from 12.5N130W TO beyond 09.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 14.5N to 16.5N between 123W and 127W, and from 07.5N to 13.5N between 126W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Afternoon scatterometer data indicated mainly gentle NE winds prevailing across the Baja California offshore waters. Seas remain 5 to 8 ft in NW swell. Elsewhere, scatterometer data showed moderate N-NW winds across the northern and central portions of the Gulf of California, and fresh N-NW winds across southern portions. Peak seas are estimated to be 4 to 5 ft across southern portions. Meanwhile, a deep layered upper level low currently centered west of the region along 128W will gradually shift SE through Tue while inducing surface low pressure development near 20N120W by Mon morning. This system will draw deep layer tropical moisture over Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California beginning late tonight through mid week, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms moving NE across the region. While there are still differences noted among the global models, the low is generally expected to track NE north of the Revillagigedo Islands and across Baja California Sur into Sinaloa through mid week. Expect strong to near gale force winds and rough seas associated with this low pressure system as it crosses the offshore waters and the entrance to the Gulf of California. A cold front will cross the Baja California waters Thu into Fri, accompanied by another round of large, long period NW swell. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, expect fresh to strong northerly gap winds through tonight as high pressure builds north of the region behind a weak cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Midday scatterometer data revealed light and variable winds across most the region between 03N and 10N, with light to gentle S to SW wind flow noted elsewhere between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region through early next week, becoming briefly strong tonight and again Mon night, with seas generally 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days, along with moderate long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface trough extends across the waters north of 20N along roughly 124W, supported by an upper level low near 26N128W. Recent scatterometer data shows an area of fresh to strong NE winds north of 28N between 124W and 140W. Elsewhere, fresh NE trades prevail west of 130W between the ITCZ and high pressure centered north of the region. The combination of NE wind waves and strong NW swell is producing 8-11 ft seas across these waters. The persistent upper level low is expected to induce surface low pressure development near 20N120W by Mon morning. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure off to the NW will result in strong to near gale force winds, primarily in the northern semicircle of the low. Seas will build to 9-13 ft within the strengthening winds associated with this system, which is expected to gradually move E-NE towards Baja California Sur through mid week. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with these developing features has developed in recent areas and covers the area from 18.5N TO 26N between 114W and 123W. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters north of 25N starting mid week, followed by another round of large, long- period NW swell. Combined wave heights may reach as high 16 ft by Wed night into Thu near 30N. Seas in excess of 8 ft will cover most of the region north of 20N by late Thu. The cold front will stall and weaken from southern Baja California to near 20N125W by Fri. Meanwhile trade wind flow will increase slightly over the deep tropics west of 130W by late week as high pressure builds behind the front. $$ Stripling