000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Nov 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 115W south of 15N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N TO 13.5N between 112.5W and 119W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W TO 10.5N92W. The ITCZ continues from 10.5N92W TO 11.5N113W TO 11N124W, then resumes from 11.5N128W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala from 10.5N to 13.5N between 90W and 93W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 12N between 134W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Afternoon scatterometer data indicates mainly gentle NE winds prevailing across the Baja California offshore waters. Seas remain 5 to 8 ft in NW swell. Elsewhere, scatterometer data show moderate N-NW winds across the northern and central portions of the Gulf of California, and fresh N-NW winds across southern portions. Peak seas are estimated to be 4 to 5 ft across southern portions. Meanwhile, a deep layered upper level low currently centered west of the region will gradually shift SE over through Tue while inducing surface low pressure development near 20N120W by Mon morning. This system will draw deep layer tropical moisture over Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California early next week, likely resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. While there are still differences noted among the global models, the low is generally expected to track NE north of the Revillagigedo Islands and across Baja California Sur into Sinaloa through mid week. Expect strong to near gale force winds and rough seas associated with this system as it crosses the offshore waters and the entrance to the Gulf of California. A cold front will cross the Baja California waters Thu into Fri, accompanied by another round of large, long period NW swell. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, expect fresh to strong northerly gap winds through tonight as high pressure builds north of the region behind a weak cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Midday scatterometer data revealed light and variable winds across most the region between 03N and 10N, with light to gentle S to SW wind flow noted elsewhere between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region through early next week, becoming briefly strong tonight and again Mon night, with seas generally 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days, along with moderate long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface trough extends across the waters north of 20N along roughly 125W, supported by an upper level low near 27N126W. Recent scatterometer data shows an area of fresh to strong NE winds north of 28N between 124W and 140W. Elsewhere, fresh NE trades prevail west of 130W between the ITCZ and high pressure centered north of the region. The combination of NE wind waves and strong NW swell is producing 8-11 ft seas across these waters. The persistent upper level low is expected to induce surface low pressure development near 20N120W by Mon morning. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure off to the NW will result in strong to near gale force winds, primarily in the northern semicircle of the low. Seas will build to 9-13 ft within the strengthening winds associated with this system, which is expected to gradually move E-NE towards Baja California Sur through mid week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters north of 25N starting mid week, followed by another round of large, long- period NW swell. Combined wave heights may reach as high 16 ft by Wed night into Thu near 30N. Seas in excess of 8 ft will cover most of the region north of 20N by late Thu. The cold front will stall and weaken from southern Baja California to near 20N125W by Fri. Meanwhile trade wind flow will increase slightly over the deep tropics west of 130W by late week as high pressure builds behind the front. $$ Stripling