000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241514 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1243 UTC Sun Nov 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 113W south of 15N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 13N within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 08N90W. A segment of the ITCZ extends 08N90W continues to 11N110W. Tow more segments continue from 10N114W to 12N123W, and from 12N125W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed around 120 nm off El Salvador. Scattered convection is also noted from 12N to 14N between 121W and 124W, and from 08N to 10N between 137W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data indicates light to gentle breezes are occurring across much of the Baja California offshore waters. Seas are 6-8 ft west of Punta Eugenia in NW swell per available altimeter data. Elsewhere, the same scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California, where seas are estimated to be 3 to 5 ft. Meanwhile, an upper level low currently centered west of the region will gradually shift SE over through Tue while inducing surface low pressure development near 20N120W by Mon morning. This system will draw deep layer tropical moisture over Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California early next week, likely resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. While there are still differences noted among the global models, the low is generally expected to track NE north of the Revillagigedo Islands and across Baja California Sur into Sinaloa through mid week. Expect strong to near gale force winds and rough seas associated with this system as it crosses the offshore waters and the entrance to the Gulf of California. A cold front will cross the Baja California waters Thu into Fri, accompanied by another round of large, long period NW swell. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, expect fresh to strong northerly gap winds through tonight as high pressure builds north of the region behind a weak cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Earlier scatterometer data revealed light breezes across most the region north of the Equator, with gentle to moderate southerly flow noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week, becoming briefly strong tonight and Mon night, with seas generally 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days, along with moderate long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface trough extends across the waters north of 20N along roughly 125W, supported by an upper level low noted in water vapor satellite imagery over 28N125W. Earlier scatterometer data shows an area of fresh to strong NE winds north of 28N between 125W and 130W. This was later corroborated by ship observations. Elsewhere, fresh trades prevail west of 130W between the ITCZ and high pressure centered north of the region. The combination of NE wind waves and NW swell is likely producing 8-11 ft seas across these waters. The persistent upper level low is expected to induce surface low pressure development near 20N120W by Mon morning. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure off to the NW will result in strong to near gale force winds, primarily in the northern semicircle of the low. Seas will build to 9-13 ft within the strengthening winds associated with this system, which is expected to gradually move E-NE through mid week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters north of 25N starting mid week, followed by another round of large, long- period NW swell. Combined wave heights may reach as high 15 ft by Wed night into Thu near 30N. Seas in excess of 8 ft will cover most of the region north of 20N by late Thu. The cold front will stall and weaken from southern Baja California to near 20N125W by Fri. Meanwhile trade wind flow will increase slightly over the deep tropics west of 130W by late week as high pressure builds behind the front. $$ Christensen