000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240916 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0915 UTC Sun Nov 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 112W south of 15N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06.5N82W to 09N91W. The ITCZ extends from 09N91W to 11N108W, resumes from 11N113W to 10N118W to 12N122W, then continues from 13N126W to 09N140W. Scattered strong convection is occurring from 12N to 14N between 88W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 114W and 117W, and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ west of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data indicates light to gentle breezes are occurring across much of the Baja California offshore waters. Seas are running 6-8 ft west of Punta Eugenia in NW swell per available altimeter data. Elsewhere, moderate NW winds prevail across most of the Gulf of California tonight, with fresh winds noted in recent scatterometer data over the far northern Gulf north of 30N. Seas likely remain in the 3-5 ft range across these waters. This moderate to fresh northerly flow will continue across the central and southern Gulf through Mon as a low pressure trough persists near the region. Looking ahead, an upper level low currently centered west of the region will gradually shift SE over the next couple days while inducing surface low pressure development near 20N120W by Mon morning. This system will draw deep layer tropical moisture over Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California early next week, likely resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. While there are still differences noted among the global models, the low is generally expected to track NE north of the Revillagigedo Islands and across Baja California Sur into Sinaloa through mid week. Expect strong to near gale force winds and rough seas associated with this system as it crosses the offshore waters and the entrance to the Gulf of California. A cold front will cross the Baja California waters Thu into Fri, accompanied by another round of large, long period NW swell. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, expect fresh to strong northerly gap winds tonight through Sun night as high pressure builds north of the region behind a weak cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Earlier scatterometer data revealed light breezes across most the region north of the Equator, with gentle to moderate southerly flow noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week with seas generally 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days, along with moderate long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface trough extends across the waters north of 20N along roughly 125W, supported by an upper level low noted in water vapor satellite imagery over the northern waters. Recent scatterometer data shows an area of fresh to strong NE winds north of 28N between 125W and 130W. Elsewhere, fresh trades prevail west of 130W between the ITCZ and high pressure centered north of the region. The combination of NE wind waves and NW swell is likely producing 8-11 ft seas across these waters. The persistent upper level low is expected to induce surface low pressure development near 20N120W by Mon morning. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure off to the NW will result in strong to near gale force winds, primarily in the northern semicircle of the low. Seas will build to 9-13 ft within the strengthening winds associated with this system, which is expected to gradually move E-NE through mid week. $$ Reinhart