000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240305 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion 0405 UTC Sun Nov 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 109W, south of 14N, moving west at 15 kt. A cluster of scattered moderate convection is noted with the wave from 10N to 12N between 109W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74.5W TO 07N81W TO 09.5N99W. ITCZ axis extends from 09.5N99W TO 09N114W TO 12N121W TO 08.5N130W TO beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N TO 13N between 114W and 122W, and from 05.5N to 10.5N between 133W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW winds continue down the length of the Gulf of California this evening, between troughing over Sonora and a second trough across the near shore coastal waters of Baja California. Afternoon scatterometer data showed an area of solid 20 kt N-NW winds spilling out of the mouth of the Rio Colorado into NW portions of the Gulf, where seas remain near 5 ft. N-NW winds of 12 to 18 kt were depicted elsewhere across the full length of the Gulf, with peak seas of 4-5 ft across the entrance to the Gulf. These fresh N-NW winds are expected to persist through the length of the Gulf of California through Sun as the weak trough persists offshore of central Baja California. This trough was producing E to N-NE winds of 5 to 15 kt across the offshore waters of Baja this afternoon and will continue through Sun before the trough dissipates and fresh N-NW winds build across the offshore waters. Seas there will remain 5-8 ft through Sun night mainly due to lingering NW swell. Looking ahead, an upper level low near 28N126W will shift SE to the waters just west of Guadalupe Island by early Sun and off Punta Eugenia by Tue. This will draw deep layer tropical moisture into Baja California Sur and southern half of the Gulf of California by early next week. Global models are indicating an area of low pressure will develop well SW of the offshore waters early Mon and move near the Revillagigedo Islands early Wed, then track NE across Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California and into Sinaloa late Wed. This will bring widespread unsettled weather across the region from Cabo Corrientes through Baja California Sur through Thu morning. This low is also expected to produce strong winds to 30 kt and high seas. Another cold front will follow, moving SE into the waters off Baja California mid week, accompanied by another round of large, long period NW swell in open waters. Farther south, expect fresh to strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Sun night as high pressure builds north of the region behind a weak cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate NE-E winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo through early Sun with seas around 4-6 ft. Winds are expected to freshen Sun and Mon as high pressure builds into the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days, along with moderate long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface trough along the convergence zone centered along 121W from 09N to 15N is drifting westward and interacting with an upper level trough. This interaction is supporting showers and a few thunderstorms northeast of the low, between 115W and 122W, as well as N of the ITCZ to 16N. Easterly winds around 20 kt are expected across the northern semicircle of the trough as it drifts westward. NW swell producing seas in excess of 8 ft will encompass the region west of 117W through Sun. Meanwhile, high pressure building northwest of the area will support fresh to strong NE tradewinds west of 130W. Looking ahead, global models are indicating another vigorous deep layer trough digging SE into the waters N of 20N through Sun, with an elongated surface low forming near 19N121W, just west of Clarion Island. A broad area of fresh to strong winds and building seas is expected across much of the NW portion of the discussion area, Sun into early next week due to this developing pattern. Seas are expected to build to 8-9 ft just north of the ITCZ and to 10-11 ft N of 25N. $$ Stripling