000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232213
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
2205 UTC Sat Nov 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 107W, south of 14N, moving west at 
10 to 15 kt. A small cluster of scattered moderate convection is 
noted just ahead of the wave along the ITCZ at 109W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W TO 10N85W TO 08.5N100W. 
ITCZ axis extends from 08.5N100W TO 09N111W TO 11.5N120W TO 
08N134W TO beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 07.5N TO 14.5N between 116W and 
122W, and from 07.5N TO 09.5N between 135W and 138W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Moderate to fresh NW winds continue down the length of the Gulf 
of California this afternoon, between troughing over Sonora and 
a second trough that has developed across the near shore coastal 
waters of Baja California. Afternoon scatterometer data showed 
an area of solid 20 kt N-NW winds spilling out of the mouth of 
the Rio Colorado into NW portions of the Gulf, where seas have 
built to 5 ft. N-NW winds of 12 to 18 kt were depicted elsewhere 
across the full length of the Gulf, with peak seas of 4-5 ft 
across the entrance to the Gulf. These fresh N-NW winds are 
expected to persist through the length of the Gulf of California 
through Sun as the weak trough persists offshore of central Baja 
California. This trough is producing E to N-NE winds of 5 to 15 
kt across the offshore waters of Baja this afternoon and will 
continue through Sun before the trough dissipates and fresh N-NW 
winds build across the offshore waters. Seas there will remain 5-
8 ft through Sun night mainly due to lingering NW swell.

Looking ahead, an upper level low near 28N126W will shift SE to 
the waters just west of Guadalupe Island by early Sun and off 
Punta Eugenia by Tue. This will draw deep layer tropical 
moisture into Baja California Sur and southern half of the Gulf 
of California by early next week. Global models are indicating 
an area of low pressure will develop near the Revillagigedo 
Islands Sun or Mon, and track NE into Sinaloa, bringing 
widespread unsettled weather across the region from Cabo 
Corrientes through Baja California Sur early to mid week. This 
low is also expected to produce strong winds to 30 kt, high 
seas, accompanied by scattered squalls and thunderstorms. 
Another cold front will follow, moving SE into the waters off 
Baja California mid week, accompanied by another round of large, 
long period NW swell in open waters.

Farther south, expect fresh to strong gap winds into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec tonight through Sun night as high pressure builds 
north of the region behind a weak cold front.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate NE-E winds are expected across the Gulf of 
Papagayo through early Sun with seas around 4-6 ft. Winds are 
expected to freshen Sun and Mon as high pressure builds into the 
western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will 
continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, 
Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days, along with 
moderate long period SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface trough along the convergence zone centered along 
120.5W from 09N to 15N is drifting westward and interacting with 
an upper level trough. This interaction is supporting showers 
and a few thunderstorms northeast of the low, between 112W and 
115W, as well as N of the ITCZ between 116W and 122W. Easterly 
winds around 20 kt are expected across the northern semicircle 
of the trough as it drifts westward. NW swell producing seas in 
excess of 8 ft will encompass the region west of 117W through 
Sun. Meanwhile, high pressure building northwest of the area 
will support fresh to strong NE tradewinds west of 130W.

Looking ahead, global models are indicating another vigorous 
deep layer trough digging SE into the waters N of 20N through 
Sun, with a broad surface trough forming near 20N120W, just west 
of Clarion Island, related to this feature. A broad area of 
fresh to strong winds and building seas is expected between the 
trough and high pressure northwest of the area Sun into early 
next week due to this developing pattern. Seas are expected to 
build to 8-9 ft just north of the ITCZ and to 10-11 ft N of 25N.

$$
Stripling