000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231514
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1328 UTC Sat Nov 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 104W, south of 15N, moving west at 
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 10.5N to 12N between 102W and 105W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N90W to 10N103W. The
ITCZ continues from 10N103W to 11N120W to 06N130W to 08N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 115W and
125W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Moderate to fresh NW winds are ongoing down the length of the
Gulf of California this morning, between troughing over Sonora
and weak ridging off the Pacific coast of Baja California. A
recent altimeter pass confirmed seas were reaching as high as 5
ft over the central and southern Gulf of California. Fresh N-NW 
winds are expected to persist through the length of the Gulf of 
California through Sun while a weak trough develops offshore of 
central Baja California. Offshore sea will remain 5-7 ft through
Sun mainly due to lingering NW swell.

Looking ahead, an upper level low near 28N126W will be over the 
waters just west of Guadalupe Island by early Sun and off Punta 
Eugenia by Tue. This will draw deep layer tropical moisture into 
Baja California Sur and southern half of the Gulf of California 
by early next week. Global models are indicating an area of low 
pressure will develop near the Revillagigedo Islands Sun or Mon, 
and track NE into Sinaloa, bringing widespread unsettled weather 
across the region from Cabo Corrientes through Baja California 
Sur early to mid week including strong winds, high seas, and 
scattered thunderstorms. A low latitude cold front will follow, 
moving into the waters off Baja California mid week, accompanied 
by another round of large, long period NW swell in open waters.

Farther south, expect fresh to strong gap winds into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec tonight through Sun night as high pressure builds 
north of the region behind a weak cold front.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate NE-E winds are expected across the Gulf of 
Papagayo through early Sun today with seas around 4-5 ft. Winds 
are expected to freshen Sun and Mon as high pressure builds into 
the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will 
continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, 
Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days, along with 
moderate long period SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface trough along the convergence zone centered along
120W from 09N to 15N is drifting westward and interacting with 
an upper level trough. This interaction is supporting showers and
a few thunderstorms north of the low, as well as N of the ITCZ 
between 115W and 125W. Easterly winds around 20 kt are expected 
in the northern semicircle of the trough as it drifts westward. 
NW swell in excess of 8 ft will encompass the region west of 120W
through early Sun. Meanwhile, high pressure building northwest 
of the area will support fresh trade winds west of 130W.

Looking ahead, global models are indicating another vigorous 
deep layer trough digging into the waters N of 20N through Sun, 
with a broad surface trough forming near 20N120W, just west of
Clarion Island, related to this feature. A broad area of fresh 
to strong winds and building seas is expected between the trough 
and high pressure northwest of the area Sun into early next week 
due to this developing pattern.

$$
Christensen