399 AXPZ20 KNHC 230901 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Nov 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 104W, south of 15N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10.5N to 12N between 102W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 10N93W. The ITCZ continues from 10N93W to 11N104W to 10N113W to low pres 1007 mb near 11.5N119W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm N and 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 116W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure NW of an old cold front south of Baja California will produce increasing N-NW winds across the Gulf of California today. These freshening winds will build seas to 4-5 ft in south portions. Fresh N-NW winds are expected to persist through the length of the Gulf of California through Sun while a weak trough develops offshore of central Baja California. Offshore sea will remain 5-8 ft through Sun. Looking ahead, an upper level low near 28N129W will be over the waters just west of Guadalupe Island by early Sun and off Punta Eugenia by Tue. This will draw deep layer tropical moisture into Baja California Sur and southern half of the Gulf of California by early next week. Global models are indicating an area of low pressure will develop near the Revillagigedo Islands Sun or Mon, and track NE into Sinaloa, bringing widespread unsettled weather across the region from Cabo Corrientes through Baja California Sur early to mid week including strong winds, high seas, and scattered thunderstorms. A low latitude cold front will follow, moving into the waters off Baja California mid week, accompanied by another round of large, long period NW swell in open waters. Farther south, expect fresh to strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night through Sun night as high pressure builds north of the region behind a weak cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate NE-E winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo through early Sun today with seas around 4-5 ft. Winds are expected to freshen Sun and Mon as high pressure builds into the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days, along with moderate long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad area of low pressure along the convergence zone centered near 11N119W is drifting westward and interacting with an upper level trough. This interaction is supporting showers and a few thunderstorms north of the low, as well as N of the ITCZ between 115W and 126W. Easterly winds around 20 kt are expected in the northern semicircle of the low as it drifts westward. NW swell in excess of 8 ft will encompass the region west of 120W through early Sun. Meanwhile, high pressure building northwest of the area will support fresh trade winds west of 130W. Looking ahead, global models are indicating another vigorous deep layer trough digging into the waters N of 20N through Sun, with a broad surface trough forming between 120W and 125W north of 18N related to this feature. A broad area of fresh to strong winds and building seas is expected between the trough and high pressure northwest of the area Sun into early next week due to this developing pattern. $$ Mundell