000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230324 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Nov 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 102W, south of 14N, moving west at around 11 kt. Scattered moderate isolated convection is noted from 07N to 11.5N between 102W and 104.5W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 06N79W to 09.5N104W. The ITCZ continues from 09.5N104W to low pres 1007 mb near 10.5N120W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm N of ITCZ between 109W and 122W and from 13N to 18N between 110W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnants of yesterdays cold front have moved south of the Baja Peninsula to near 20N late this afternoon, with a narrow ridge building S-SE across the offshore waters of Baja this evening. Northerly winds around 10 kt should be expected across most of the offshore waters overnight with seas of 5-8 ft in NW swell prevailing. This high pressure will produce increasing N- NW winds of 10-15 kt across northern portions of the Gulf of California and 15-18 kt across southern portions of the Gulf. These freshening winds will build seas to 3 ft across north portions by morning and 4-5 ft south portions. Fresh N-NW winds are expected to persist through the length of the Gulf of California through Sun while a weak trough develops offshore of central Baja California to produce minor variations in wind direction and speed across the offshore waters. Offshore wave heights will diminish to 5 to 7 ft Sat as the NW swell decays then increase again to 6-8 ft Sun. Looking ahead, a cold core upper level low near 29N129W is currently shifting slowly southeast, and will be over the waters just west of Guadalupe Island by late Sat and off Punta Eugenia by Tue. This will draw deep layer tropical moisture into Baja California Sur and the southern and central Gulf of California by early next week. Global models are indicating associated surface low pressure will develop over the Revillagigedo Islands early in the week. The low pressure will track across Los Cabos into Sinaloa, bringing unsettled weather across the region from Cabo Corrientes through Baja California Sur early to mid week including strong winds, locally high seas, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms. A cold front will follow, moving into the waters off Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California by mid week, accompanied by another round of large, long period NW swell in open waters. Farther south, a few clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing along the Mexican coast near Acapulco. Some of this thunderstorm activity may persist along the coast of Guerrero through tonight. Expect fresh to strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Sat through Sun night as high pressure builds north of the region behind a weak cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle NE-E winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo region through early Sun today with seas around 4-5 ft. Winds are then expected to freshen Sun into early next week as high pressure builds north of the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days, along with light to moderate long period SW swell. Convergent westerly flow will support occasional scattered showers and thunderstorms off the Colombian coast through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad area of low pressure along the convergence zone centered near 10.5N120W is drifting westward and interacting with an upper level trough. This interaction is supporting showers and a few thunderstorms just north of the low, as well as north of the monsoon trough between 105W and 120W. The low will shift westward the next few days. Easterly winds to 20 kt are expected in the northern semicircle of the low as the pressure gradient increases. The subtropical ridge will remain weakened due to an earlier front moving over the waters north of 20N, and a dissipating front moving south of 30N west of 135W. Recent altimeter data indicated seas of 8 to 13 ft in NW swell north of 25N. NW swell in excess of 8 ft will encompass the region west of 120W through Sat. Meanwhile high pressure building northwest of the area will support fresh trade winds west of 130W. Looking ahead, global models are indicating another vigorous deep layer trough digging into the waters N of 20N Sat and Sun, with a broad surface trough forming between 120W and 125W north of 18N related to this feature. A broad area of fresh to strong winds and building seas is expected between the trough and the high pressure northwest of the area Sun into early next week due to this developing pattern. $$ Stripling