000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220921 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Nov 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 100W, south of 14N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 97W and 101W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N114W to low pres 1010 mb near 10N116W to 08N119W. The ITCZ continues from 08N119W to to 07N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N TO 12N between 113W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A slow moving cold front extends across Baja California Sur and the central Gulf of California. The front will stall and weaken today, then shift southward tonight and Sat before dissipating. Off the west coast of Baja California, gentle NW winds behind the front will become more northerly later this morning as high pressure builds into the region along with long period NW swell. This swell will propagate SE to encompass the entire offshore waters of Baja California, with heights of 8 to 9 ft reaching as far south as 20N this morning, then gradually subsiding by Sat. Winds may briefly increase off Cabo Corrientes late tonight as the high builds southward. Looking ahead, another strong gap wind event can be expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Sat into early Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE-E winds are expected to pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo today with seas to around 5-6 ft. Offshore winds will then diminish to less than 15 kt through the weekend. Gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days, along with light to moderate long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad area of low pressure along the convergence zone centered near 10N116W is drifting westward and interacting with an upper level trough. This interaction is supporting showers and a few thunderstorms near the low. The low will shift westward the next few days. Easterly winds to 20 kt are expected in the northern semicircle of the low as the pressure gradient increases. A weakening stationary front reaches from 23N115W to 20N126W to 22N140W. The front has temporarily disrupted the subtropical ridge, producing moderate to locally fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ. Fresh NE winds are possible west of 130W later in the week as high pressure builds north of the forecast area. This will coincide with long period NW swell moving into the waters N of 20N W of 130W, with seas peaking at 12 to 13 ft later today. Looking ahead, global models are indicating another vigorous deep layer trough digging into the waters N of 20N Sat and Sun, with a broad surface trough forming between 120W and 125W north of 18N related to this feature. A broad area of fresh to strong winds and building seas is expected between the trough and high pressure north of the area Sun into early next week due to this developing pattern. $$ Mundell