518 AXPZ20 KNHC 220248 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Nov 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 98W, south of 14N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 10.5N between 96W and 99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W TO 05N79W TO low pres 1010 MB near 08.5N89W TO 11N112W TO low pres 1010 MB near 10.5N115.5W TO 08N120W. The ITCZ continues from 08N120W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N TO 18N between 103W AND 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving slowly southeastward across Baja California Sur and the central Gulf of California this evening, extending from the mainland near Ciudad Obregon southwestward across the Baja peninsula. Strong SW winds across the northern Gulf of California the past 24 hours have diminished significantly in recent hours. The front will move slowly across the Baja California peninsula tonight and then shift southward Fri and Sat to near Cabo San Lucas before dissipating. Off the Pacific coast of Baja California, mostly moderate NW winds behind the front have diminished to around 10 kt this evening and will become more northerly overnight as high pressure builds into the region in the wake of the front. Longer period NW swell is following the front as well. The swell will propagate SE and encompass the entire offshore waters of Baja California, with heights of 8 to 9 ft reaching as far south as 20N Fri morning before gradually subsiding below 8 ft by Sat afternoon. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in a mix of NW and SW swell over the offshore Mexican waters south of Cabo Corrientes. Winds may briefly increase fresh to strong off Cabo Corrientes late Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the cold front. Looking ahead, another round of strong gap winds can be expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Sat into early Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are expected to pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo tonight with seas building to around 7 ft night. Offshore winds will then diminish to 15 kt or less through the weekend. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days, along with light to moderate long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad area of low pressure is centered near 10.5N115.5W, drifting westward, and is interacting with a mid/upper trough. This interaction is supporting a large area of showers and thunderstorms from near the low pressure northward to just south of the Revillagigedo Islands. This low is forecast to gradually shift westward across the tropics for the next few days. Easterly winds to around 20 kt could persist across the N semicircle of this low during this time as the pressure gradient increases. A cold front reaches from Baja California Sur near 26N112W to 22N123W to 23N140W. The front west of 120W will move as far south as 18N to 20N through Fri before stalling and dissipating. The front has temporarily disrupted the subtropical ridge, producing only moderate to locally fresh NE to E tradewinds farther south into the deep tropics north of the ITCZ. Fresh NE winds are possible west of 130W by late week as high pressure builds behind the front located farther east. This will coincide with a push of long period NW swell forecast to reach the forecast waters north of 20N west of 130W by tonight, with seas peaking near 12 or 13 ft by Fri. Looking ahead, global models are indicating another vigorous deep layer trough digging into the waters north of 20N Sat into Sun. A broad surface trough is forecast to form between 120W and 125W north of 18N related to this energetic upper feature. A broad area of fresh to strong winds and building seas are to be expected between the trough and high pressure north of the area Sunday into early next week due to this developing pattern. $$ Stripling