039 AXPZ20 KNHC 211533 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1441 UTC Thu Nov 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 98W from 03N to 13N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 94W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 06N78W to low pressure near 09N100W. The ITCZ reaches from 08N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection was located from 13N to 17N between 110W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection also evident from 13N to 15N between 120W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving southeastward across Baja California Sur. Strong to near gale force SW winds prevail across the northern Gulf of California. The front will move across much of the Baja California peninsula before stalling and weakening over the southern Gulf of California and Baja California Sur near Cabo San Lazaro on Fri. Winds will diminish over the northern Gulf of California today. Off the Pacific coast of Baja California, mostly moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front will diminish today as high pressure builds into the region in the wake of the front. Longer period NW swell is following the front as well. The swell will propagate SE and encompass the entire offshore waters of Baja California, with heights of 8 to 10 ft reaching as far south as 20N through late tonight, before gradually subsiding below 8 ft into Sat. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in a mix of NW and SW swell prevail over the offshore Mexican waters south of Cabo Corrientes. Winds may briefly increase fresh to strong off Cabo Corrientes late Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the cold front. Looking ahead, another round of strong gap winds can be expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Sat into early Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are expected to pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo tonight with seas building to around 7 ft night. Gentle to moderate NE winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough afterwards. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days, along with light to moderate long period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad area of low pressure is centered near 10N115W, drifting westward, and is interacting with a mid/upper trough. This interaction is supporting a large area of showers and thunderstorms from near the low pressure northward to just south of the Revillagigedo Islands. This low is forecast to gradually shift west across the tropics for the next few days. Easterly winds to around 20 kt could persist across the N semicircle of this low during this time. A cold front reaches from Baja California Sur south of Punta Eugenia to 21N125W to 24N140W. The front will move as far south as 18N to 20N through Fri before stalling and dissipating. The front has temporarily disrupted the subtropical ridge, producing only moderate trade winds farther south into the deep tropics north of the ITCZ. Fresh NE winds are possible west of 130W by late week as high pressure builds behind the front farther east. This will coincide with a push of long period NW swell forecast to reach the forecast waters north of 20N west of 130W by tonight, with seas peaking near 12 or 13 ft by Fri. Looking ahead, global models are indicating another vigorous deep layer trough digging into the waters north of 20N Sat into Sun. A broad surface trough may form between 120W and 125W north of 18N related to the upper feature. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are to be expected between the trough and high pressure north of the area. $$ Christensen