000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191533
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1328 UTC Tue Nov 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W N of 04N, moving W at 
10 to 15 kt. This wave appears to have formed in the eastern 
North Pacific, likely the result of enhanced gap winds through 
the Gulf of Papagayo. A small cluster of moderate convection is 
noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located 
over northern Colombia near 10N75W, then continues across Panama
to 09N89W to 08N96W to 1010 mb low pressure near 13N106W to 
another 1010 mb low pressure near 12.5N111W to 12N122W. The ITCZ 
extends from 12N122W to 11N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is from 07N to 10N between 91W and 
105W. Similar convection is observed from 11N to 17 between 106W 
and 109W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

SW winds will increase to near gale force over the northern Gulf
of California beginning tonight, ahead of a cold front approaching
the area from the northwest. This front will usher in a set of 
long period NW swell into the offshore waters west of the Baja 
California Norte, with building seas in the 8 to 12 ft range on 
Wed. This swell event will spread southward, with seas 8 ft or 
greater spreading as far south as 21N by Fri before subsiding.

A surface trough is analyzed based on scatterometer data from 
27N120W to 27N115W to 23N110W while a mid to upper-level low 
remains near 27N120W. Moisture associated with this low will 
spread eastward across Baja California tonight, then inland NW 
Mexico on Wed ahead of a cold front reaching the area. 

Latest scatterometer pass indicated that fresh to strong gap 
winds continue to blow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds 
will briefly diminish to 20 kt or less this afternoon, but will 
pulse to strong once again late tonight into early Wed morning. 
Light to gentle breezes and slight seas will persist through the 
remainder of the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to strong NE-E winds are expected across the Gulf of 
Papagayo Wed through Thu with seas building to around 8 ft. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will 
continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, 
Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E is near
13N106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted on the W side of
the low from 11N to 17 between 106W and 109W. 

Elsewhere a ridge dominates the north waters mainly N of 20N W of
120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally 
fresh winds north of the ITCZ and west of 130W. 

Additional pulses of long period NW swell will continue to impact
the west-central waters today with seas of 8 to 9 ft from 11N to
20N W of 135W. An altimeter pass confirmed the presence of these
sea heights. Another set of large, long period NW swell is forecast
to reach the forecast waters north of 20N west of 130W Thu night,
with seas peaking 12 or 13 ft by Fri.

$$
GR