000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190854
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0850 UTC Tue Nov 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W N of 04N, moving W at
around 10 to 15 kt. This wave appears to have formed in the
eastern North Pacific, likely the result of enhanced gap winds
through the Gulf of Papagayo. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 86W and 89W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 08N96W to 13N108W to
11N117W. The ITCZ extends from 11N117W to 11N129W to 09N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N
to 10N between 86W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection was
noted from 07N to 17N between 103W and 109W. 


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

An overnight scatterometer pass depicted the remnant circulation
associated to former Tropical Storm Raymond near 27N115W, with
moderate to fresh winds noted within 60 nm N semicircle of the
low. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW flow continues off the 
coast of Baja California Sur, with 5 to 7 ft seas. 

SW winds will increase to near gale force over the northern Gulf
of California late tonight, ahead of a cold front approaching 
the area from the northwest. The front will sweep through the 
region before stalling and dissipating over the southern Gulf of 
California and southern Baja California Sur Fri. This front will 
usher in a set of long period NW swell into the offshore waters 
west of the Baja California peninsular, with seas in the 8 to 11 
ft range west of Baja California Norte by midweek. The swell will
spread southward, with seas 8 ft or greater spreading as far 
south as 21N by Fri before subsiding.

Farther south, an overnight scatterometer pass indicated fresh 
to strong gap winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Winds will briefly diminish to 20 kt or less this afternoon, but
will pulse to strong once again late tonight. Light to gentle 
breezes and slight seas will persist through the remainder of the
week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo tonight, with
stronger pulses by mid week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters
of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next 
several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E is near
12N106W. Scattered showers continue in this area from 07N to 17N
between 103W and 109W.

Elsewhere high pressure is centered near 44N144W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh
winds north of the ITCZ and west of 130W. 

Additional pulses of long period NW swell will continue to impact
the waters today with seas of 8 to 9 ft north of 15N and west of
135W. Another set of large, long period NW swell is forecast to 
reach the forecast waters north of 20N west of 130W Thu night, 
with seas peaking near 13 ft Fri.

$$
AL