000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190221 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 221 UTC Tue Nov 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 08N85W to the remnants of T.D. Twenty-one E near 13N105W. The ITCZ reaches from low pressure near 13N11W to 09N140W. to a second low near 14N111W to 12N115W. The intertropical convergence zone reaches from 12N115W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 85W and 90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... North of 20N...showers and thunderstorms persist over the southern Gulf of California and on the east coast of Baja California Sur south of Loreto. This is in an area of rich deep layer moisture brought into the region by tropical cyclone Raymond, now dissipating south of Punta Eugenia. The thunderstorms are supported by divergent flow aloft in the southern stream jet aloft, south of a cold core upper low centered west of the area near 27N120W. Showers and thunderstorms are also noted under the cold center of the low, and off the coast of Baja California Norte near San Quintin. Gentle to moderate SW flow continues off the coast of Baja California Sur, with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed NW and SW swell. Light to gentle breezes persist elsewhere with slight seas. For the forecast, the upper low will lift northeast through Baja California Norte into the southwest United States through Tue. SW winds will increase over the northern Gulf of California ahead of a cold front approaching the area from the northwest. The front will sweep through the region before stalling and dissipating over the southern Gulf of California and southern Baja California Sur Fri. Long period NW swell with seas 8 to 11 ft will follow the front, reaching as far as 20N by Fri before subsiding. Farther south, strong to near-gale force gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec are gradually diminishing through early Tue as high pressure north of the area over the Gulf of Mexico weakens and shifts east. A smaller, weaker and shorter pulse is expected into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue night, mainly due to local drainage flow. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas will persist through the remainder of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A few showers and thunderstorms are active off Costa Rica and western Panama along the monsoon trough. Recent altimeter passes showed seas of 5 to 7 ft, likely due to long period SW swell moving into the area. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo each night through Tue night, with stronger pulses by mid week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A few showers associated with the remnant of T.D. Twenty-E continue to be active in the center of the low near 13N105W, but this will diminish as the low dissipates through early Tue. Elsewhere a weak surface ridge extends from high pressure centered near 32N140W to near 18N120W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ and west of 130W. Additional pulses of long period NW swell will continue to impact the waters tonight and Tue with seas of 8 to 9 ft north of 15N and west of 135W. Another set of large, long period NW swell is forecast to reach the forecast waters north of 20N west of 130W Thu night, with seas peaking near 13 ft Fri. $$ Christensen