000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181534 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1337 UTC Mon Nov 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Twenty-One is centered near 12.3N 105.5W at 18/1500 UTC moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate isolated strong convection on the northern semicircle of the low and mainly from 12N to 14N between 104W and 106W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 14N to 17N between 102W and 106W. The tropical cyclone will continue to move westward over the next couple of days. The depression is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday and dissipate by Wednesday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N92W to 11N102W. It then resumes from 13N112W to 10N121W. The ITCZ continues from 10N121W to 11N132W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 06N E of 80W, from 07N to 10N between 82W and 90W, and from 06N to 10N between 90W and 101W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico and the monsoon trough in the eastern north Pacific is supporting near gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with resulting seas near 11 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to blow across the Tehuantepec region through Tue night. Winds and seas will diminish on Wed as the area of high pressure shifts eastward and the pressure gradient loosens. Fresh to strong winds, and seas in the 8-11 ft range are in portions of the Sinaloa and Baja California Sur offshore waters, associated with the remnant surface trough of Raymond. Winds and seas will decrease over this region by late tonight. An upper- level low spinning near 26N120W supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over parts of the offshore waters of Baja California, including also parts of Baja California and the Gulf of California. Moisture and the likelihood of showers will persist across this area through at least Tue. Winds and seas will increase off Baja California Norte and over the northern Gulf of California late Tue night as a cold front moves across the region. Seas will build to 8-11 ft by Thu over the waters north of Punta Eugenia. Fresh to strong SW winds will persist in the northern Gulf of California through Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo each night through Wed night, with seas briefly building to 8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days. Wave heights will generally remain in the 4-7 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on T.D. Twenty-One-E. A surface ridge extends from high pressure centered near 32N140W to near 20N120W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and W of 130W. Additional pulses of long period NW swell will continue to impact the NW waters today and Tue with seas of 8 to 9 ft NW of a line from 30N130W to 20N140W by tonight. Another set of large, long period NW swell is forecast to reach the NW forecast waters Thu night, with seas peaking near 13-14 ft Fri. $$ GR