000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171521 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1520 UTC Sun Nov 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond is centered near 19.1N 111.1W at 17/1500 UTC moving N at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm NE quadrant. A turn toward the north- northwest is expected tonight or Mon. Raymond's remnants are expected to move near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Mon. The system is forecast to dissipate late Mon. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E is centered near 10.5N 102.8W at 17/1500 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm NE and 180 nm NW quadrants. A west-northwest motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast, and the depression is expected to either dissipate or degenerate into a remnant low within the next couple of days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal northerly gales across the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to diminish below gale force this morning as the influence of high pressure weakens over the western Gulf of Mexico. See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 10N102W, then resumes from 18N111W to 12N114W to 09N122W. The ITCZ extends from 09N122W to 09.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 85W, within 180 nm north of the monsoon trough between 87W and 91W, and from 14N to 17N between 100W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 129W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond and the gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas greater than 8 ft persist over the Baja California offshore waters in mixed NW and SE swell from Raymond. Seas will subside below 8 ft on Mon as swell decays over the region and the remnants of Raymond continue to weaken. Elsewhere, strong to near gale force northerly winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase off Baja California Norte and over the northern Gulf of California on Wed as a cold front moves across the region. Near gale force winds are expected over the northern Gulf Wed and Wed night with seas building to 7-10 ft. Seas will build to 8-12 ft by Thu over the waters north of Punta Eugenia. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will peak around 8 ft each morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days. Wave heights will generally remain in the 4-7 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on T.D. Twenty-One-E. Overnight scatterometer data showed a large area of fresh trade winds over the waters from 14N to 26N west of 130W. Seas likely peak around 11 ft within the strongest winds. Available altimeter data indicates NW swell covers much of the northern waters with 8-11 ft seas noted north of 13N along 125W. Wave heights will subside through tonight as the swell decays, and seas will fall below 8 ft across most of the region by Mon. $$ Reinhart