000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170858 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0900 UTC Sun Nov 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Raymond is centered near 17.5N 111.6W at 17/0900 UTC moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 180 nm E semicircle. Raymond will continue to track northward while weakening, and is forecast to become a remnant low later tonight, then dissipate by Mon night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Twenty-One is centered near 10.0N 102.2W at 17/0900 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 101W and 105W. Little change in intensity is forecast, as the depression continues on a west- northwestward track. The depression is forecast to dissipate within the next few days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas near 14 ft. High pressure N of the area will continue to weaken, and winds will diminish below gale force this morning. See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N99W. It resumes west of T.D. Raymond from 11N115W to 08N122W. The ITCZ extends from 08N122W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 80W and 84W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 07N to 09N between 94W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 06N to 10N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about T.D. Raymond, T.D. Twenty-One-E, and the gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Marine conditions over the offshore waters between Manzanillo and Los Cabos will continue to deteriorate today as T.D. Raymond moves northward across the area. Elsewhere, NW swell is producing 8-10 ft seas over the outer waters west of Baja California, and is merging with the swell from Raymond, resulting in seas greater than 8 ft across much of the region north of Cabo Corrientes. Seas will subside below 8 ft Monday. Another set of NW swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte, once again building seas to 8-10 ft the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo mainly during the overnight and early morning hours through early next week. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days. Wave heights will generally remain in the 4-7 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on T.D. Twenty-One-E. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range in NW swell across much of the forecast waters N of 10N and W of 115W. This swell will continue to subside the next couple of days, and by early next week, will fall below 8 ft across much of the forecast waters. $$ AL