000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170327 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Nov 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Raymond is centered near 16.9N 112.1W at 17/0300 UTC moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 15N to 17N between 109W and 111W. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 23N between 104W and 111W, and from 11N to 18N between 111W and 115W. A turn toward the north and a faster forward speed are expected later tonight or early Sunday, and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, Raymond or its remnants are expected to move near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday. Additional weakening is forecast, and Raymond is expected to become a tropical depression when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday, and it should degenerate into a remnant low Sunday night or Monday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Twenty-One is centered near 9.8N 102.4W at 17/0300 UTC moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 15N between 98W and 105W. A slower west to west- northwest motion is expected during the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast, and the depression is expected to dissipate within the next few days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough is supporting gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are currently peaking around 13 ft just downstream of the Gulf. Gale force winds are expected to persist through tonight, then diminish Sun morning as the influence of the ridge diminishes over the Gulf and the pressure gradient weakens. See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N96W. It resumes west of T.S. Raymond from 11N120W to 12N129W. The ITCZ extends from 12N129W to 13N135W, then resumes from 11N137W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N W of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about T.S. Raymond, T.D. Twenty-One-E, and the gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Marine conditions over the offshore waters between Manzanillo and Los Cabos will continue to deteriorate through the remaining weekend as T.S. Raymond moves northward across the area. Elsewhere, NW swell propagating into the northern waters is producing 8-10 ft seas over the outer waters west of Guadalupe Island. This swell will continue spreading across the region and mix with swell from Raymond, resulting in seas greater than 8 ft across much of the region north of Cabo Corrientes by Sun. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase off northern Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California by mid week as a cold front moves through the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo mainly during the overnight and early morning hours through early next week. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days. Wave heights will generally remain in the 4-7 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on T.D. Twenty-One-E. Seas are running 8-12 ft in NW swell across the northwest forecast waters, with the highest seas noted north of 13N and west of 130W. This swell will continue to spread southeastward the next couple of days while slowly decaying. A 1011 mb low pressure center near 13N136W is expected to weaken to a trough later tonight, then shift west of the forecast area on Sun. Seas associated with this low pressure have merged with the large area of NW swell previously described. $$ Ramos