000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Nov 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Raymond is centered near 16.5N 111.8W at 16/2100 UTC moving N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 14N to 22N between 104W and 113W, and from 10N to 16N between 113W and 119W. The cyclone should begin a northward track with an increase in forward speed later tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track, Raymond or its remnants are expected to move near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday. Weakening is forecast and Raymond is expected to become a tropical depression when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday, and it should degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Twenty-One is centered near 9.5N 101.0W at 16/2100 UTC moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N between 98W and 104W. A westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast through early next week and the depression could degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate at any time during the next 72 hours. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough is supporting gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are currently peaking around 15 ft just downstream of the Gulf. Gale force winds are expected to persist through tonight, then diminish Sun morning as the influence of the ridge diminishes over the Gulf and the pressure gradient weakens. See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N84W to 09N98W. It resumes west of T.S. Raymond from 14N112W to 10N121W to 11N128W. The ITCZ extends from 11N128W to 13N133W, then resumes from 12N136W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N W of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about T.S. Raymond, T.D. Twenty-One-E, and the gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Marine conditions over the offshore waters between Manzanillo and Los Cabos will continue to deteriorate through the remaining weekend as T.S. Raymond moves northward across the area. Elsewhere, NW swell propagating into the northern waters is producing 8-10 ft seas over the outer waters west of Guadalupe Island. This swell will continue spreading across the region and mix with swell from Raymond, resulting in seas greater than 8 ft across much of the region north of Cabo Corrientes by Sun. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase off northern Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California by mid week as a cold front moves through the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo mainly during the overnight and early morning hours through early next week. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days. Wave heights will generally remain in the 4-7 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on T.D. Twenty-One-E. Seas are running 8-12 ft in NW swell across the northwest forecast waters, with the highest seas noted north of 13N and west of 130W. This swell will continue to spread southeastward the next couple of days while slowly decaying. A 1012 mb low pressure center near 13N135W is expected to weaken to a trough later tonight, then shift west of the forecast area on Sun. Seas associated with this low pressure have merged with the large area of NW swell previously described. $$ Ramos