000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161522 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1520 UTC Sat Nov 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Raymond is centered near 16.5N 111.7W at 16/1500 UTC moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm SE quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring elsewhere from 14N to 18N between 107W and 112W. A northward motion is expected to continue through Sun. Raymond or its remnants are expected to move near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sun or early Mon. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Raymond is expected to become a tropical depression when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sun. Raymond should degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E is centered near 9.2N 100.2W at 16/1500 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of center. A generally westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early next week. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, but no significant intensification is anticipated through early next week. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough is supporting gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are currently peaking around 16 ft just downstream of the Gulf. Gale force winds are expected to persist through tonight, then diminish Sun morning as the influence of the ridge diminishes over the Gulf and the pressure gradient weakens. See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N98W. It resumes west of T.S. Raymond from 14N113W to 10N120W to 12N128W. The ITCZ extends from 12N128W to 14N133W, then resumes from 12N136W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 81W, within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 87W and 91W, and from 11N to 14N between 114W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about T.S. Raymond, T.D. Twenty-One-E, and the gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Marine conditions over the offshore waters between Manzanillo and Los Cabos will deteriorate through the weekend as T.S. Raymond moves northward across the area. Elsewhere, NW swell propagating into the northern waters is producing 8-10 ft seas over the outer waters west of Guadalupe Island. This swell will continue spreading across the region and mix with swell from Raymond, resulting in seas greater than 8 ft across much of the region north of Cabo Corrientes by Sun. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase off northern Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California by mid week as a cold front moves through the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo mainly during the overnight and early morning hours through early next week. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days. Wave heights will generally remain in the 4-7 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on T.D. Twenty-One-E. Recent altimeter data indicates seas are running 8-12 ft in NW swell across the northwest forecast waters, with the highest seas noted north of 13N and west of 134W. This swell will continue to spread southeastward the next couple of days while slowly decaying. A 1010 mb low pressure center is analyzed near 15N134.5W this morning. Overnight scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds between this low pressure and high pressure centered north of the area. The low is expected to weaken to a trough later tonight, then shift west of the forecast area on Sun. Seas associated with this low pressure have merged with the large area of NW swell previously described. $$ Reinhart