000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160912 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0900 UTC Sat Nov 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Raymond is centered near 15.7N 110.6W at 16/0900 UTC moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm E of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted elsewhere from 13N to 18N between 105W and 111W. Overnight satellite imagery indicates that the low level center is exposed west of the convection. With west-southwesterly shear increasing across Raymond, it appears as if the intensity has peaked, and will start a decreasing trend later today. The track will become northward today, then a north-northeastward motion expected tonight and Sunday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Recently developed Tropical Depression Twenty One-E is centered near 9.2N 99.2W at 16/0900 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection was noted within 30 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted elsewhwere from 08N to 12N between 97W and 101W. The system is forecast to reach tropical storm intensity today, then maintain that intensity through the weekend before weakening early next week. The system will continue on a westward track the next couple of days before moving on a west-northwestward track early next week. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure across eastern Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure in the monsoon trough is supporting gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The ridge will weaken this weekend as the high pressure center shifts eastward into the southeastern United States. This will loosen the pressure gradient, which will help diminish winds below gale force by Sun morning. Seas are currently peaking near 17 ft. See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 10N94W. It resumes from 13N112W to 10N121W to 14N133W. The ITCZ extends from 10N136W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 08N E of 82W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 11N to 15N between 113W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 07N to 09N between 133W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about T.S. Raymond, T.D. Twenty one-E, and the latest gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Conditions between Manzanillo, Mazatlan, and Los Cabos will deteriorate through the weekend as T.S. Raymond moves through the region. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and wave heights of 4 to 6 ft. Winds and seas will increase off northern Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California by mid week as a cold front moves through the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE-E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo mainly during the overnight and early morning hours through early next week. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the next several days. Wave heights will remain in the 4-7 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for more on recently developed Tropical Depression Twenty One-E. NW swell propagating across the northwest forecast waters with seas of 8 to 11 ft W of a line from 30N117W to 15N130W to 11N140W. The swell will continue to spread southeastward the next couple of days while slowly subsiding. An area of low pressure is centered near 14N133W, with an estimated pressure of 1010 mb. Overnight ASCAT pass indicates fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail within 180 nm N semicircle of the low center with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. The low is forecast to weaken to a trough later tonight. The trough is expected to shift W of the area late Seas associated with this area of low pressure have merged with the large area of NW swell propagating across the forecast waters. $$ AL