000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160404 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Nov 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Raymond is centered near 15.4N 109.8W at 16/0300 UTC moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of T.S. Raymond center. A turn to the north is expected on Saturday, and this general motion is expected to continue for a couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Raymond is expected to be near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday. Some slight strengthening is forecast through early Saturday, followed by a gradual weakening trend beginning by Saturday night. Raymond is then expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure in the monsoon trough is supporting gap winds of gale force in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The ridge will weaken by Sun as the high pressure center shifts eastward into the southeastern United States. This will loosen the pressure gradient, which will help diminish winds below gale force by Sun morning. Seas during this event will peak near 17 ft Sat morning. See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W from 07N to 15N, moving west at about 5 to 10 kt. Low pressure is along the wave near 09N97W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection persists within 150 NM in the W semicircle of the low. Gradual development of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could form early next week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to low pressure near 09N98W to 15N106W, then resumes near 114N112W to 10N120W to 14N131W to 12N133W. The intertropical convergence zone reaches from 12N134W to 08N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 NM of T.S. Raymond center. Scattered moderate isolated strong within 150 NM W semicircle of low pressure near 09N98W. Scattered moderate from 12N to 16N between 124W and 134W, and from 04N to 10N W of 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about T.S. Raymond as well as the gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Conditions between Manzanillo, Mazatlan, and Los Cabos will deteriorate Sat and Sun as T.S. Raymond moves through the region. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and wave heights of 4 to 6 ft. Little change is expected through early next week. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase off northern Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California by mid week associated with a cold front moving through the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE-E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo mainly during the overnight and early morning hours Sat through early next week. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the next several days. Wave heights will remain in the 4-7 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb low pressure area is along a tropical wave near 09N98W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms persist within 150 nm W semicircle of the low along with fresh winds. The low will briefly interact with the gap wind plume emerging out of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun. But model consensus shows the low moving farther west of the major shipping lanes through early next week along 12N drifting westward between 105W and 110W, where it will stall and weaken. Another weak low pressure area is noted on satellite imagery near 12N115W. Winds remain fairly light near the center of this low pressure, and model guidance indicates it may pulse in this region as Raymond moves northward nearby. No significant development is anticipated before the low pressure fully dissipates by early Sun. Farther west, another area of low pressure is centered near 14N132W, with an estimated pressure of 1012 mb. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail within 180 nm NW quadrant of the low center with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. The low is forecast to move westward with the associated winds and seas, and open into a trough tonight. Seas associated with this area of low pressure merged with the large area of long period NW swell propagating across the NW forecast waters. Large long period NW swell associated with a low pressure system in the central north Pacific is moving across the northwest forecast waters with wave heights of 8-13 ft. The swell will continue to spread southeastward the next couple of days while slowly subsiding. $$ NR