000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152012 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2012 UTC Fri Nov 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Raymond is centered near 14.7N 109.4W at 15/2100 UTC moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Due to strong westerly winds aloft, the low level center of Raymond is on the western edge of a large area of thunderstorms, located within 180 nm east of the center. Raymond will intensify in the short term as it moves north toward the Los Cabos area, before stalling and weakening through early next week. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure is building across eastern Mexico in the wake of a cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the monsoon trough will allow gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec to reach gale force by late today. The ridge will weaken by Sun as the high pressure center shifts eastward into the southeastern United States. This will loosen the pressure gradient, which will help diminish winds below gale force by Sun morning. Seas during this event will peak near 17 ft Sat morning. See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W from 02N to 13n, moving west at about 5 to 10 kt. Low pressure is along the wave near 09N96W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection persists within 180 NM in the N quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for further development of this low during the next few days, and there is currently a low probability of development. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 1008 mb low pressure near 09N97W to 13N105W where it is disrupted by T.S. Raymond. Another segment of the monsoon trough continues west of Raymond, reaching from 1010 mb low pressure near 12N115W to 10N120W to a 1012 mb low pressure center near 14N130W. The intertropical convergence zone reaches from 10N130W to 07N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within within 180 nm in the north quadrant of low near 09N97W, within 180 nm east of Raymond. Scattered moderate convection is active within 120 nm north quadrant of low pressure near 12N115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about T.S. Raymond as well as the gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Conditions between Manzanillo, Mazatlan, and Los Cabos will deteriorate Sat and Sun as T.S. Raymond moves through the region. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and wave heights of 4 to 6 ft. Little change is expected through early next week. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase off northern Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California by mid week associated with a cold front moving through the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE-E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo mainly during the overnight and early morning hours Sat through early next week. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the next several days. Wave heights will remain in the 4-7 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb low pressure area is along a tropical wave near 09N97W. An recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong winds within 120 nm in the north quadrant of the low, where numerous showers and thunderstorms persist. The low will briefly interact with the gap wind plume emerging out of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun. But model consensus shows the low moving farther west of the major shipping lanes through early next week along 12N drifting westward between 105W and 110W, where it will stall and weaken. Another weak low pressure area is noted on satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data near 10N115W. Winds remain fairly light near the center of this low pressure, and model guidance indicates it may pulse in this region as Raymond moves northward nearby. No significant development is anticipated before the low pressure fully dissipates by early Sun. Farther west, another area of low pressure is centered near 14N130W, with an estimated pressure of 1010 mb. An earlier scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong NE winds within 210 nm N semicircle. More recent altimeter passes showed seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. The low is forecast to move westward with the associated winds and seas, and open into a trough tonight. Seas associated with this area of low pressure will merge with the large area of long period NW swell propagating across the NW forecast waters today. Large long period NW swell associated with a low pressure system in the central north Pacific is moving across the northwest forecast waters with wave heights of 8-13 ft. The swell will continue to spread southeastward the next couple of days while slowly subsiding. $$ Christensen