000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150904
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 UTC Fri Nov 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Depression Twenty-E is centered near 13.5N 108.6W at
15/0900 UTC moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection was 
noted within 60 nm E semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection was noted elsewhere from 10N to 16N between 
104W and 109W. The depression is forecast to intensify as it 
moves on a northwestward to north-northwestward track, reaching 
tropical storm strength later today. The system is then forecast 
to maintain tropical storm intensity for the next day or so 
before weakening to a depression Sun night. See latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
for more details.

High pressure is building across eastern Mexico in the wake of a 
cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the
monsoon trough will help usher in the next gale force gap wind 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec later today. The ridge will 
weaken by Sun as the high pressure center shifts eastward into 
the SE United States. This will loosen the pressure gradient,
which will help diminish winds below gale force by Sun morning.
Seas during this event will peak near 17 ft Sat morning. See the
latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 
KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ 
MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W N of 03N, moving west at
about 5 to 10 kt. Low pressure is along the wave near 08N94W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 210
NM NW quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be only marginally conducive for further development of this 
low during the next few days, and there is currently a low 
probability of development.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 09N94W to 13N106W to 
13N116W to 15N124W to 14N130W. Scattered moderate convection was
noted from 13N to 16N between 112W and 115W. Scattered moderate 
convection was noted from 14N to 18N between 122W and 126W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please see the Special Features section above for details about
TD Twenty-E as well as the upcoming gale force gap wind event in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja 
California, supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and 
wave heights of 4 to 6 ft. Little change is expected through Fri.
Conditions for the Baja California Sur and Jalisco offshore 
waters will deteriorate afterwards as Tropical Depression 
Twenty-E moves through this region. Otherwise, light and 
variable winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through 
Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to occasionally strong NE-E winds are expected in the Gulf
of Papagayo mainly during the overnight and early morning hours
Sat through Mon. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow 
will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, 
Colombia, and Ecuador the next several days. Wave heights will 
remain in the 4-7 ft range.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Large long period NW swell associated with a low pressure system 
in the central north Pacific is moving across the NW forecast 
waters with wave heights of 8-12 ft. The swell will continue to 
spread SE the next couple of days while slowly subsiding. 

A 1010 mb low pressure area is along a tropical wave near 
08N94W. A second area of low pres is centered near 14N129W, with
NE winds in the 20 to 25 kt range within 210 nm N semicircle,
with seas in the 8 to 9 ft range. The low is forecast to move 
westward with the associated winds and seas, and open into a 
trough tonight. Seas associated with this area of low pressure 
will merge with the large area of long period NW swell 
propagating across the NW forecast waters today.

$$
AL