129 AXPZ20 KNHC 150358 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Nov 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Twenty-E is centered near 13.0N 108.4W at 15/0300 UTC moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 18N between 102W and 109W. A turn to the north- northeast is expected to occur by Sunday. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Friday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Global and regional models are indicating the next strong gale force wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region is expected to start late tonight through Sun. The strongest winds will begin Fri morning through Sat night. Building seas are expected to reach up 17 ft with the peak winds. See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 89W north of 04N is moving west at about 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 09N88W to a 1007 mb low near 12N108W to 10N116W to 11N121W. The ITCZ continues from 11N121W to 15N125W, then resumes from 10N130W to 06N136W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 17.5N between 100W and 110W, and from 08N to 11N between 94W and 97W, and from 05N to 10N W of 138W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and wave heights of 4 to 6 ft. Little change is expected through Fri. Conditions for the Baja California Sur and Jalisco offshore waters will deteriorate afterwards as Tropical Depression Twenty-E moves through this region. See the Special Features section for further information on the tropical cyclone. Otherwise, light and variable winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE-E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo mainly during the overnight and early morning hours Sat through Mon. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the next several days. Wave heights will remain in the 4-7 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large long period NW swell associated with a low pressure system in the central north Pacific is moving across the NW forecast waters with wave heights of 8-12 ft. A 1009 mb low pressure area is near 13N129W with NE winds in the 20 to 25 kt range within 180 nm northwest quadrant of the low and 8 to 9 ft seas. The low will move westward with the associated winds and seas, and open into a trough Fri night. Seas associated with this area of low pressure will merge with the large area of long period NW swell propagating across the NW forecast waters on Fri. $$ NR