000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Nov 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A low pressure system is located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 12.5N108W. This system is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms near the well-defined surface center. If this development trend continues, then advisories will be initiated on a tropical depression this afternoon or evening. The system is expected to move slowly northward to north- northwestward for the next few days. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more information. Global and regional models are indicating the next strong gale force wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region is likely to occur from early Fri through Sat night. Building seas are expected to reach up 16 ft with the peak winds. See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 88W north of 06N is moving west at about 15 kt. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the wave from 06N to 14N E of 95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 08N93W to a 1008 mb low near 12N108W to 10N119W. The ITCZ continues from 11N120W to 13N126W, then resumes from 10N129W to 07N134W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 17.5N between 100W and 110W, and from 11N to 16.5N between 123W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and wave heights of 4 to 6 ft. Little change is expected through Fri. A weakening tropical cyclone is forecast to approach Baja California Sur Mon and Tue. Winds and seas are expected to increase ahead of this system and over waters near the Revillagigedo Islands on Sat. The current track has this system entering near San Jose del Cabo on Mon and into the southern and central Gulf of California Mon evening through Tue morning. Light and variable winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through Mon morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE-E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo mainly during the overnight and early morning hours Sat through Mon. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the next several days. Wave heights will remain in the 4-7 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large long period NW swell associated with a low pressure system in the central north Pacific is entering the discussion area this afternoon with wave heights of 8-9 ft in the far northwest corner of the area. Swell of 8 to 12 ft will extend west of a line from 30N130W to 22N140W by early Fri morning. A 1010 mb low pressure area is near 13N127W. NE winds in the 20 to 25 kt range are still noted in the northwest quadrant of the low producing 8 to 9 ft seas. The low will move westward with the associated winds and seas over the next 42 hours. Seas in the NW quadrant are expected to merge with a large area of long period NW swell propagating across the forecast waters described in the previous paragraph. $$ NR