000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141542 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1307 UTC Thu Nov 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A low pressure system is located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 12N107.5W. This system is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms near the well-defined surface center. Additional development is anticipated and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves slowly northward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable by later in the weekend, which will inhibit further development. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more information. Latest scatterometer data show gale force winds are no longer present in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. However, global and regional models are indicating another strong gale force wind event is likely to occur across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from Fri through Sat night. Winds are forecast to increase to minimal gale force by early Fri morning, with building seas up to 11 or 12 ft. Then, winds and seas will further increase as the day goes by with winds reaching 30-40 kt, and seas 10-16 ft by Fri evening. See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 88W north of 04N is moving west at about 15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 08N93W to a 1008 mb low near 12N107.5W to 10N115W to 11N120W. The ITCZ continues from 11N120W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 13N127W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 05N E of 79W to the coast of Colombia, from 05N to 08N between 80W and 83W, and from 07N to 09N between 92W and 98W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and wave heights of 4 to 6 ft. Little change is expected through Fri. A weakening tropical cyclone is forecast to approach Baja California Sur Mon and Tue. Winds and seas are expected to increase ahead of this system and over waters near the Revillagigedo Islands on Sat. Light and variable winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong NE-E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo mainly during the overnight and early morning hours Sat through Mon. Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the next several days. Wave heights will remain in the 4-7 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large long period NW swell associated with a low pressure system in the central north Pacific will reach the discussion area later today, with wave heights building to 11-12 ft in the far northwest corner of the area late tonight. Swell in excess of 8 ft will extend west of a line from 30N116W to 20N125W to 14N130W to 10N140W by early Sat morning. A 1010 mb low pressure area is observed near 13N127W. NE winds in the 20 to 25 kt range are still noted in the northwest quadrant of the low producing 8 to 9 ft seas. The low will move westward with the associated winds and seas over the next 48 hours. Seas in the NW quadrant are expected to merge with a large area of long period NW swell propagating across the forecast waters described in the previous paragraph. $$ GR