000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140942 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Nov 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A well-defined low pressure system is located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California near 12N109W, producing scattered moderate to strong convection from 10N to 13N between 107W and 109W. Gradual development of this low is expected over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week as the system drifts northward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable by later in the weekend, which will inhibit further development. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more information. Scatterometer data shows gale force winds are no longer present in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. However, global and regional models are indicating another strong gale force wind event is likely to occur across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from Fri through Sat night. See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 86W north of 04N is moving west at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm either side the axis from 05N to 10N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 08N94W to a 1009 mb low near 12N109W to 11N117W to a 1010 mb low near 13N127W. The ITCZ extends from south of the low near 08N128W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 09N between 81W and 87W, and within 120 nm south of the trough between 95W and 107W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about a future gale force wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and wave heights of 4 to 6 ft. Little change is expected through Fri. An area of low pressure, a possible tropical cyclone, will move northward south of southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Sun and Mon. Winds and seas are expected to increase over these waters ahead of this system, if it stays intact. Light and variable winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the next several days. Wave heights will remain in the 4-7 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large long period NW swell associated with a low pressure system in the central north Pacific will reach the discussion area later today, with wave heights building to 11-12 ft in the far northwest corner of the area late tonight. Swell in excess of 8 ft will extend west of a line from 30N119W to 11N136W early Sat. A 1010 mb low pressure area is observed near 13N127W. 20 to 25 kt NE winds in the northwest quadrant of the low is producing 8 to 9 ft seas. The low is expected to weaken to a trough by Sat, with seas in the NW quadrant merging with the large area of swell described in the previous paragraph. $$ Mundell