000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131532 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1323 UTC Wed Nov 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A well-defined low pressure system located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed near 11.5N111W on the 1200 UTC surface map. Gradual development of the low is expected over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the system moves slowly northward. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for any further development of this disturbance by late this weekend. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more information. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A strong ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico supports a gap wind event across the Tehunatepec region with northerly winds of 30-40 kt and seas in the 10-18 ft range. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force tonight, with seas subsiding to 9-12 ft. Another strong gale force wind event is possible across the region Fri through Sat night. See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 82W N of 05N moving W at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern end of the wave axis, mainly from 05N to 08N between 82W and 84W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 07N95W to 1008 mb low pressure near 11.5N111W to another 1009 mb low pressure near 13N125W to 07N132W. The ITCZ continues from 07N132W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 78W and 105W, and from 06N to 10N between 100W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N E of 80W to the coast of Colombia, and from 06N to 09N between 88W and 100W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special FeatureS section above for details about an ongoing gale force wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and wave heights of 4 to 6 ft. Little change is expected through Thu. Winds and seas will diminish across the waters west of Cabo Corrientes later today as high pressure in northern Mexico shifts eastward. Light and variable winds will prevail in the Gulf of California through Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the next several days. Wave heights will remain in the 4-7 ft range. Large N to NE swell from a strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gale wind event is currently reaching the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore forecast waters with seas of 9-13 ft. Sea heights will gradually subside this evening through Thu morning as the winds diminish in the Tehuantepec area. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dissipating cold front extends from near 30N136W to 26N140W. Winds of 20 kt or less and seas less than 8 ft are associated with the front. Large-long period northwest well associated with an intense low pressure system in the central north Pacific will reach the far NW waters on Thu, with wave heights peaking near 12 to 13 ft by Thu night. Low pressure of 1009 mb is observed near 13N125W. Satellite imagery showed a partially exposed low-level circulation, and scatterometer data revealed 25 kt NE winds in the NW quadrant of the low. Upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for development of this system while it moves slowly westward over the next couple of days. By this weekend, upper- level winds are expected to become unfavorable for any further development of the disturbance. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. $$ GR