000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130910 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Nov 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure behind a cold front across the Gulf of Mexico is producing 40 to 45 kt northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will diminish below gale force late tonight, with seas subsiding to 8-10 ft by Thu morning. Another gale force wind event is possible across the region Fri through Sat night. See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 127W from 04N to 18N is moving W at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection east of the wave axis is associated with a low centered near 13N125W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 07N90W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N112W to 1010 mb low pressure near 13N125W to 09N131W. The ITCZ continues from 09N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 78W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 13N between 109W and 114W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also noted from 11N to 14N between 122W and 126W.103W and within 120 nm north of the between 107W and 113W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Feature section above for details about an ongoing gale force wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and wave heights of 4 to 6 ft. Little change is expected through Thu. Winds and seas will diminish across the waters west of Cabo Corrientes today as high pressure in northern Mexico shifts eastward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwest monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the next several days. Wave heights will remain in the 4-7 ft range. Large N to NE swell from a strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gale wind event will reach the Guatemala outer offshore waters this morning. Sea heights will gradually subside this evening through Thu morning as the winds diminish in Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dissipating cold front extends from near 32N136W to 27N140W. Large-long period northwest well associated with an intense low pressure system in the central north Pacific will reach the far NW waters on Thu, with wave heights peaking near 13 to 14 ft by Thu night. Low pressure of 1010 mb is observed near 13N125W. Satellite imagery showed a partially exposed low-level circulation, and scatterometer data revealed 25 kt NE winds in the NW quadrant of the low. It has a low potential for development over the next few days as it tracks slowly westward to west-northwestward. A broad low pressure area centered near 11N112W has disorganized convection at this time. Slow development of this disturbance is possible over the next few days as it drifts northward. However, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for further development of this system by Sun or Mon. $$ Mundell