000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120910 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Nov 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will reach the SW Gulf of Mexico later today. Unseasonably strong high pressure associated with the front will build behind the cold front, and induce gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon. Winds will funnel through the Chivela Pass, and are expected to peak near 45 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, with seas building to near 20 ft during this time. The pressure gradient will relax on Wed as the area of high pressure shifts eastward, with winds diminishing below gale force on Wed night. Another gale force gap wind event is possible across the region Fri and Sat. See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W from 01N to 12N, moving W at around 15 kt. Isolated convection is near the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 125W from 03N to 15N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 124W and 128W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N92W to 09N108W to 14N118W to 11N128W to 11n140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 82W and 99W, and from 08N to 15N bewteen 108W and 116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is expected to begin this afternoon. Please see the Special Feature section above for more details. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds, and seas generally 4 to 6 ft. Little change is expected through Thu. Strong high pressure building across NW Mexico is supporting fresh to strong NW to N winds and 7 to 8 ft seas near the entrance of the Gulf of California and farther south between Cabo Corrientes and Los Cabos. Winds and seas are expected to diminish by tonight as the high pressure shifts eastward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the next several days. Seas will remain in the 4-7 ft range. Large seas generated by a strong gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight, with seas building to 10 to 14 ft in northerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front approaching the far NW waters will extend from 30N136W to 26N140W tonight. 8 to 9 ft seas in NW swell are expected W of the front. Large long period NW swell associated with an intense low pressure system in central northern Pacific will reach the NW waters on Thu. Seas associated to this swell event will peak near 15 ft over the far NW waters by Thu night. Looking ahead, a low pressure system is expected to form during the next few days several hundred miles south or south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some gradual development of this system may be possible as it drifts slowly northward. $$ Mundell