000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110301 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0300 UTC Mon Nov 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico Mon night, and reach the SW Gulf of Mexico Tue. High pressure will build across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico behind the cold front, and help usher in the next gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to peak near 45 kt late Tue night, with seas building to near 20 ft during this time. The area of high pressure will shift eastward into the SE United States Wed. This will loosen the pressure gradient over the Tehuantepec region, and winds will diminish below gale force Wed night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W N of 06N, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted N of 06N between 81W and 84W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W from 04N to 13N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave and monsoon trough intersect, and is described below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 122W from 04N to 14N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 nm of the wave axis from 05N to 10N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 133W from 05N to 14N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 130W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07.5N93W to 10N100W to 10N110W to 11N120W. The ITCZ extends from 09N123W to 10N131W. It resumes from 09N135W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 06N between 81W and 84W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 07N to 11N between 94W and 110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 09N to 15N between 112W and 120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 05N to 10N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure that prevailed across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico has weakened. The afternoon ASCAT pass indicated that winds have diminished below gale force. Fresh to strong northerly winds currently prevail. These winds will briefly diminish to 20 kt or less Mon afternoon and early Mon evening before pulsing to strong once again late Mon night. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is expected to begin Tue. Please see the special feature section above for more information. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds, and seas generally under 6 ft. Little change is expected through Tue. Strong high pressure building across Mexico will help to tighten the pressure gradient over N and central Mexico Mon into Tue. This tighter pressure gradient will result in fresh to strong NW to N winds near the entrance of the Gulf of California on Mon. The fresh to strong winds will spread south across the waters between Cabo Corriente and Los Cabos by Tue, and farther south to near 17N between 105W and 109W by late Tue before diminishing to 20 kt or less Wed. Seas are forecast to build to 9 or 10 ft over this area. Over the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds will prevail most of the forecast period, with the exception of moderate NW to N winds over the southern part of the Gulf tonight and Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region through early Mon, with gentle to moderate winds then prevailing through midweek. Farther south, mainly gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure near 36N131W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly moderate to fresh NE trades N of the ITCZ to about 20N and west of 120W, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. These seas will gradually subside below 8 ft by Tue afternoon. A cold front will reach the far NW waters Mon night, reaching from 30N134W to 25N140W by late Tue. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in NW swell can be expected W of the front. A larger set of long period NW swell, with periods of 20 seconds, is forecast to enter the NW waters on Thu. Seas associated to this swell will peak near 15 ft over the far NW waters by Thu night. $$ AL