000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102101 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2100 UTC Sun Nov 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W N of 06N, moving W at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 05N to 08N between 80W and 84W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W from 04N to 13N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave and monsoon trough intersect, and is described below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 121W from 04N to 14N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 120W and 124W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 132W from 05N to 14N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 09N between 130W and 135W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N93W to 10N103W. The ITCZ extends from 10N103W to 09N109W to 12N118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted over forecast waters from 06N to 10N between 79W and 86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 90 nm N and 60 nm S of the monsoon trough between 89W and 103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 07N to 11N between 103W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 15N between 12W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 05N to 10N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure that prevailed across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico has weakened. The latest ASCAT pass indicates that winds have diminished below gale force. Fresh to strong northerly winds will briefly diminish to 20 kt or less Mon afternoon and early Mon evening before pulsing to strong once again late Mon night. A strong cold front moving across the western Gulf of Mexico will usher in the next gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue. This gap wind event is forecast to peak Tue night into Wed with winds peaking near 45 kt late Tue night. Seas will build to near 20 ft during this time. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds, and seas generally under 6 ft. Little change is expected through Tue. A strong high pressure building across Mexico in the wake of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will tighten the pressure gradient over N and central Mexico Mon into Tue. This will produce fresh to strong NW to N winds near the entrance of the Gulf of California on Mon, with these winds spreading south across the waters between Cabo Corriente and Los Cabos by Tue, and farther south to near 17N between 105W and 109W by late Tue. Seas are forecast to build to 9 or 10 ft with these winds. Over the Gulf of California, light to gentle variable winds will prevail most of the forecast period, with the exception of moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the southern part of the Gulf tonight and Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region through early Mon, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing through midweek. Farther south, mainly gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 33N130W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly moderate to fresh NE trades N of the ITCZ to about 21N and west of 120W with seas of 8 to 9 ft. These seas will gradually subside below 8 ft by Tue afternoon. A cold front will reach the far NW waters Mon night, reaching from 30N134W to 25N140W by late Tue. Winds of 20 kt or less and seas of 8 to 9 ft in NW swell will follow the front. A set of long period NW swell, with periods of 20 to 21 seconds, is forecast to enter the NW waters on Thu, building seas to near 15 ft by Thu night. $$ AL