000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101000 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Nov 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico supports minimal gale force northerly winds over the Tehuantepec region, with seas up to 16 ft. The ridge will start to weaken later this morning as it shifts eastward towards the W Atlc waters. This will result in winds diminishing below gale force in the afternoon. Winds will further diminish to 20 kt or less by Mon night. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico Mon night, and reach the Bay of Campeche Tue evening. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will build across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico and once again usher in another Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event Tue night into Wed. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 04N to 13N with axis near 96W, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 10N between 90W and 108W. A tropical wave is from 04N to 14N with axis near 118W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 15N between 113W and 122W. A tropical wave is from 06N to 16N with axis near 129W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 14N between 127W and 132W. A tropical wave is from 05N to 14N with axis near 138W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05 to 12 W of 132W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 08N82W to 08N94W to 09N105W. The ITCZ extends from 09N105W to 11N110W to 11N115W to 08N135W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 06N to 10N E of 90W, from 06N to 10N between 90W and 107W, and from 06N to 15N between 113W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features for details about the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds, and seas generally under 6 ft. Little change is expected through Tue. Winds will briefly strengthen off the coast of Mexico from Sinaloa to Jalisco Mon and Tue night. Over the Gulf of California, light to gentle variable winds will prevail through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region through tonight. Farther south, mainly gentle to moderate S-SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore forecast waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador through the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from 1026 mb high pres near 36N129W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly moderate to fresh NE trades N of the ITCZ to 23N and west of 115W. Seas reaching near 9 ft prevail N of the ITCZ to near 20N between 124W and 133W. This region of seas prevail in a mix of NE wind waves and NW swell. These seas will gradually subside below 8 ft by the middle of next week. A cold front will reach the far NW waters Mon night. Seas behind the front will briefly build to 8 ft across the far NW corner on Tue before subsiding. A large set of NW swell is forecast to enter the NW waters late next week. $$ NR